People’s pulse

We assume that as Christians, there would be some sort of political ceasefire during the Christmas holidays, presumably extending until after the Pope’s visit in January. But as the run-up to the May 2016 elections draws nearer, the fight could turn into an ugly free-for-all in gunning for the highest position in government. In the latest Pulse Asia survey for potential presidential candidates, Vice President Jejomar Binay continues to be the frontrunner, but his rating went down five points to 26 percent from 31 percent. Senator Grace Poe is gaining a lot of ground (despite her insistence that she is not ready to run for president) with 18 percent, followed by Senator Miriam Santiago at 12 percent, and former president and now Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada at 10 percent with the rest having single-digit scores including presumed Liberal Party bet Mar Roxas who slipped from second to sixth place with 6 percent.

The primary target continues to be Jojo Binay. The vice president’s supporters say the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee hearings on corruption allegations is only the beginning, expecting the negative attacks to be even more vicious. Despite the slide in his ratings, many analysts are convinced the vice president is still the man to beat with a solid base from the masa level who identify with the against-all-odds, rising-above-poverty theme that encapsulates his life story — borne out by the presidential survey results that show a solid support especially in the rural areas.

According to Binay supporters, the result of the recent Pulse Asia survey was actually encouraging because the drop was “marginal” despite the “negative attacks” against the vice president. Interestingly, the numbers of Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes — the two most active players in the subcommittee hearings and who have both indicated an interest in running for president — did not show any significant improvement. As a matter of fact, Trillanes only obtained 8 percent among potential 2016 vice presidentiables while Cayetano got 13 percent.

Insiders say there are “weapons” stockpiled in the Binay election arsenal that will make a huge impact in May 2016. Aside from the Alpha Phi Omega fraternity (and sorority) that reportedly has over 360 chapters in colleges and universities all over the country – not to mention the alumni associations here and abroad – the “sister city” program that was started during Binay’s term as mayor of Makati has given him deep ties with local government leaders in many parts of the country.

Apparently, the program is not limited to cities alone but also encompasses municipalities and provinces — from Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao — and any locality that gets elevated to the status of sister city entitles its constituents to hospitalization benefits and scholarships granted by the local government of Makati. It is said that all politics is local, and support from the grassroots level is certainly a critical factor when it comes to winnability. Let’s not also forget, there is what we call the “geographical factor” — where it is presumed that Binay would be strong in vote-rich Region 4 because his father hails from Batangas, while he can count on the North since his mother is from Isabela.

On the other hand, we all know anything can happen from now until E-day 2016, especially if one considers the oft-quoted phrase that “the presidency is (a matter of) destiny.”

This is precisely what happened to President Noynoy Aquino and his mother, who found themselves catapulted to the presidency due to a confluence of events. In the case of Mrs. Cory Aquino, no one would have thought that a woman who has always remained in the background – some even say relegated under the shadow of her charismatic and popular husband – would carve her place in history as the first woman president of the country, the reluctant candidate who became a rallying figure for the opposition after the death of Ninoy.

In retrospect, Noynoy’s path to the presidency was almost exactly the same. After all, he was nowhere near the radar of prospective presidential candidates for the 2010 elections. The death of his mother in August 2009 changed all that – and people saw the “hesitant” candidate giving in to the clamor of the people who were also, understandably, overcome with emotion at the death of the woman revered as the icon of democracy in this country and wanted the son to honor the memory of his mother.

And so there is the proverbial “dark horse” in another reluctant candidate Grace Poe whose numbers have consistently been inching upward. She has said countless times that she is not ready for the job, yet she continues to be in the radar screen for the presidency. We are told that aside from Chiz Escudero, Senator Serge Osmeña is also one of her close advisers. Serge was the LP campaign manager and political strategist who catapulted Noynoy to Malacañang. There are also serious conversations within the Liberal Party to make Grace Poe their guest presidential candidate. Even Mar himself told me that the choice is really up to the president. Be that as it may, analysts say that if anti-Binay groups will not agree on a unified candidate and end up fielding their own bets, it’s possible that their votes will be divided while Binay’s base will remain solid.

But when all is said and done, the “people’s pulse” is only one factor in determining who will lead this country in the next six years. No one will argue that ultimately, the presidency is still a matter of destiny. Noynoy Aquino, Joseph Estrada, Gloria Arroyo and Fidel Ramos can all very well attest to that.

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