Preparing for 2016

Potential candidates like to say it’s too early to talk about the general elections in 2016. But it’s never too early to prepare, especially for the high-stakes presidential race.

There’s only one Cory Aquino and I don’t see anyone’s death catapulting a relative to Malacañang again in the foreseeable future. So by this time, with the unofficial campaign expected to start heating up in the second half of next year, political parties should have already selected their likely standard bearer and running mate for 2016.

Several names have been mentioned. Vice President Jejomar Binay has not been coy about his plans. He is forming his own political party, to be launched on June 12, Independence Day, after he makes a clean break with the Pimentels’ PDP-Laban.

For the administration, it’s still Interior Secretary Mar Roxas. Amid rumors that his own Liberal Party (LP) is scouting for a more winnable alternative, the buzz is that Roxas has been given until the end of the year to improve his ratings.

Other names that have been floated: Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Chiz Escudero, Bongbong Marcos, Grace Poe and Bong Revilla. Former senator Panfilo Lacson has also been mentioned.

After the pork barrel scandal, some quarters have written off Revilla, and Marcos could go the same way. Even Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, once touted as a strong contender for the vice presidency, has been overheard asking colleagues, in a joking manner, if they thought he would go to jail. (One said yes.)

The betting is that Cayetano and Escudero will settle for the vice presidential race. Lacson has disappeared in his role as typhoon rehabilitation czar.

Poe, who is reportedly being considered by certain administration stalwarts, told me recently that no one had approached her with any suggestion to seek the nation’s highest office. She has not dazzled in the Senate so far. Business groups and foreign diplomats, however, are taking interest, inviting her as a speaker or dinner guest – and liking what they see.

Her strong showing in the Senate race, which uncharacteristically blindsided the top pollsters, has been taken by the opposition as one of the indications that the daang matuwid administration manipulated the outcome of the midterm elections last year, with her as an unintended beneficiary.

At this time, certain political parties are already crunching voting numbers, calculating their solid support base and those of their rivals, and estimating the number of votes needed if election results are manipulated.

Propaganda and dirty tricks operators are also being organized, with additional resources allocated for social media operations. If you think those tweets and comments on Facebook and traditional media, responding immediately to criticism of a particular official, appear to be coming from an organized source, you’re probably right.

For the public, such battles can be entertaining. When political rivals dig up dirt about each other, it’s usually the only time people learn about the misuse of public funds and abuse of power.

Unfortunately, the accusations typically die down after the elections are over, so we never know which accusations are true and which are just part of dirty tricks operations.

The 2016 race promises to be particularly dirty.

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As of today the principal contenders still look like Binay and Roxas, taking their rivalry a notch higher after their battle for the vice presidency in 2010.

If the surveys are accurate, Binay remains the man to beat in 2016. He seems to have acquired Teflon coating; accusations of wrongdoing hurled (or revived) against him and his relatives don’t seem to have made much of a dent so far on his ratings.

Since 2010, Binay is the only official whose numbers have been higher – and have remained there – than those of President Aquino.

Binay has maintained a well-organized support network at the grassroots, led mostly by people he has known since his law school days in the University of the Philippines and when he was a human rights lawyer opposing the Marcos regime. Binay went to the EDSA Shrine for the 28th anniversary celebration because he was not invited to the main event in Cebu, which featured people who were not at the revolt.

The VP doesn’t have the rakish charm and star power of Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada, but his mass appeal is nearly as formidable. The boy orphaned at nine and adopted by an uncle promises to give the rest of the country what the poor and senior citizens are enjoying in Makati.

Mar Roxas, on the other hand, can’t shake off the smell of old money, even when he pedals a tricycle or eats with his hands. To overcome this handicap, it looks like the tack is to paint his potential rivals as crooks and to present the bet of the daang matuwid administration as Mr. Clean.

This strategy has two pitfalls. One is if the potential rival proves to be like Erap, whose solid base supported him, warts and all, even when he was held without bail and then convicted of plunder. For this support base, Erap can do no wrong. And if he does do wrong, his supporters think everybody else is just as guilty anyway. Now he’s Manila mayor, one of his partners is San Juan mayor, two of his sons are senators, a granddaughter is a councilor in San Juan, and a nephew is a provincial governor. All at the same time.

The second pitfall: people will ask how clean is Mr. Clean, or at least the people around him. Roxas’ record as a public official is untainted by scandal. This could be the reason why the administration, which is always quick to leap to conclusions and file corruption indictments against officials of the previous administration, appears to be agonizing over the accusation – hurled by the Czech ambassador – that a Roxas protégé was involved in a $30-million extortion attempt when Mr. Clean headed the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC).

Even if the DOTC official is cleared as expected, the image of Mr. Clean may be affected by the scandal over the Disbursement Acceleration Program, designed by his party stalwarts, and other innovative budget realignments that opposition members claim are designed to boost the profile of the presumptive administration standard bearer.

Since Roxas is a banker and a technocrat, he could instead work on this strength and cultivate the support of the business community. But he will have to overcome perceptions, even among investors, that anything he touches becomes bogged down in indecision.

His party itself will have to deal with criticisms of arrogant self-righteousness, especially in the light of the DAP and pork barrel mess.

With the recent scandals, and with charges still expected to be filed against more administration allies, the warning that picking a non-administration bet in 2016 will roll back reforms is starting to fall flat.

When the straight path tries to paint the competition as crooked, it should make sure support would go to its standard bearer instead of raising the question: “Wala na bang iba (Isn’t there anyone else)?”