Contentious

The administration wants to blitz the process  but the way ahead for the political settlement between government and the MILF is anything but clear.

We are not sure how the terms of the political settlement might be quickly accomplished. Negotiations with the MILF consumed all of 17 years. With all the annexes to a final accord signed, we are actually entering the most difficult phase of this process: winning the support of all the stakeholders, as well as the larger public, for the outcome of the negotiations.

Serious public deliberation of the matter has not yet begun. The annexes signed have not been publicly examined. The legal and constitutional issues have yet to be defined. The political groups have yet to arrive at their positions on this matter.

Furthermore, we have seen very little enthusiasm for the peace deal in both houses of Congress. Hearings have been called in both chambers to deliberate on the agreement. The legislators may not be as pliant as they were during the bad old days of the PDAF and the DAP.

With less means now to leverage the legislators, the administration might have to work much harder convincing even their own allies. If public opinion turns adverse, the politicians may be reluctant to support the agreement.

Almost surely, we will have a divided public opinion. That condition will encourage partisan posturing on this agreement, infecting the debate with positioning for the key 2016 elections.

In the areas to be immediately affected by the terms of the political settlement, we are hearing more defined voices. Over the past two weeks, clashes have erupted in Mindanao. The situation, it seems has become a lot more fluid, more tense.

The MNLF, to be sure, stands opposed to this agreement because it threatens to sideline the movement and render it irrelevant. Recall that the main reason the MNLF assembled armed units in Zamboanga City last year was to stage a show of force in the vain hope of forcing government to include them in the negotiations for a new political framework to replace the ARMM.

The BIFF, a radical faction that broke away from the MILF, staged its own show of force. This produced a number of skirmishes with government forces and increasing use of improvised explosives. The national government, for its part, launched a major military offensive against the BIFF — intending, it seems, to crush centers of resistance to the political settlement.

The closer we get to the signing of a peace accord with the MILF, the more armed confrontations are likely to occur in the area of operations of the BIFF and the MNLF. It seems ironic that while government propaganda speaks of the dawn of peace in the troubled region, the more the situation on the ground begins to feel like war again.

Last week, people claiming to speak for the indigenous people in Mindanao voiced opposition to the looming political settlement with the MILF. They claim the process largely excluded them and the agreement will worsen their plight.

The indigenous people in Mindanao were victims of decades of hostilities. Now they fear they will be victims of a peace agreement that is completely silent about their plight.

I spoke to a number of retired military officers last week. All of them were unhappy about the agreement. They complain the agreement is lop-sided. Government conceded to every MILF demand and won nothing in return.

The seemed very concerned over the possibility that the new “juridical entity” will have its separate police and paramilitary units. That alone, they say, violates the law about having a single national police organization. This is matter causes unease in the PNP and the AFP.

We have yet to hear from credible representatives of the Christian communities that will be subordinated to the new Islamic “judicial entity.” In 2008, when the MOA-AD was being considered, the Christian population in these areas covered by the agreement actively opposed that agreement. They will likely oppose the political settlement now on the table, seeing very little difference between this one and the old one junked by the Supreme Court.

The agreement with the MILF does not appear clear about what happens to the 1996 document establishing the ARMM. That document cannot be trashed. It is recognized by the OIC and ought to be the platform on which any further agreement may be forged.

Beyond that, there is the Tripoli Agreement. Any new deal must be coherent with pre-existing agreements. Otherwise, there will be trouble with the other stakeholders.

The deal forged with the MILF is burdened with many legal and constitutional issues. It will take time to sort these out.

This deal will unavoidably become the focus for political struggle. Those who support it and those who oppose it will try and win public opinion to their side.

Two years will be too short a period to expect this deal to be sealed. When a new administration assumes office in 2016, the entire political settlement will be subject to review.

In a word, we cannot reasonably expect this deal to progress according to the “blitz” the Palace seems to be imagining. Our legislative process, which took all of two decades to pass the RH bill that could be overturned by the High Court, sees little incentive in acting on the “juridical entity”.

From every angle, this seems a political settlement that interests few outside of the circle of MILF partisans. Like most other public works projects of this administration, this settlement will not happen before 2016.