Better relations

China’s president-in-waiting, Xi Jinping, is making the right noises about wanting better relations with the country’s neighbors.

For the past three decades, China has focused on economic development, job generation and poverty alleviation. That singular focus on achieving prosperity has resulted in impressive economic growth.

This was accomplished in an environment of relative peace – no world war, and a peaceful Asia-Pacific, although there are still pockets of armed conflict around the globe.

Chinese officials emphasize this “peaceful rise” when they reassure the world that their country has no aggressive intentions. Why, they ask, should they want to ruin the environment that allowed them to achieve prosperity?

But the peaceful region is now jittery, with China at the heart of territorial disputes. The country is feuding with many of its neighbors apart from the Philippines: India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan. Malaysia and Brunei also have overlapping territorial claims with China. Beijing and Moscow are on friendly terms, but the two countries also have a territorial dispute.

China’s growing economic clout and its muscle-flexing in surrounding waters have prompted the United States to return its focus to the Asia-Pacific from the turbulent Middle East and North Africa.

It’s reasonable for the Chinese to want their influence in global affairs to be commensurate with the size of their economy. But respect on the world stage is earned, not enforced, and making enemies in one’s own backyard is hardly the way to win respect.

Chinese relations with Japan are unlikely to go beyond civility. Beijing needs friends and is cultivating friendship with Southeast Asia as a whole.

Recent developments, however, are making China a divisive force in the region – again not an ideal path for achieving regional leadership.

The developments are also driving countries such as the Philippines, which cannot match China’s ever-growing military power, closer to the United States.

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The reliable buzz in diplomatic circles is that Chinese officials see Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario, who served for years as ambassador to Washington, as too pro-American and, like President Aquino, lacking a nuanced understanding of China.

This sentiment has likely reached Malacañang, and could be among the reasons why President Aquino is resorting to back-channeling to improve ties with Beijing.

The Palace choice for the back-channeling, however, is unfortunate. This much, we hope, is now clear to Malacañang. That President Aquino would entrust someone like Antonio Trillanes IV with such a delicate task – and expect him not to shoot his mouth off about his heroic (in his mind) achievement – bodes unmitigated disaster for Philippine foreign affairs.

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo lasted nine years in power partly because she was blessed with enemies like Trillanes. And one of the reasons this country is in such a mess is because we keep sending people suffering from arrested development to Congress. Truly, we deserve the government we get.

While we’re in this topic, the administration of daang matuwid should show transparency in confronting legitimate questions about the numerous trips of Trillanes to China. How many times did he go there, who financed the trips, and what was the quid pro quo?

President Aquino should also make clear what he thinks of Del Rosario. It’s obvious P-Noy does not think his foreign affairs chief is the best conduit to Beijing at this time. So P-Noy deployed Mar Roxas to an expo in China, where Xi Jinping was expected to attend.

By protocol, Xi’s counterpart Jejomar Binay should have been the one sent to the meeting. But I guess P-Noy is using every opportunity to raise the profile of Roxas, even if it marginalizes Binay.

Binay should be thankful, because that meeting isn’t going to make Beijing soften its stand on its territorial claims, even with the upcoming once-in-a-decade leadership change.

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Chinese officials point out that their foreign policy is consistent and is generally not affected by leadership changes, unlike… never mind.

They also point out that their military buildup is meant merely to compensate for the years when they were focused on their economy. Now they want a defense capability that is commensurate with their level of economic development.

Yesterday, China launched its first aircraft carrier, a retrofitted Ukrainian vessel renamed Liaoning. The US believes it will take many years before China can match American naval power and have enough trained personnel to man aircraft carriers for global deployment. But the maiden run of Liaoning intensified jitters in the region.

A slowdown in Chinese economic growth may affect its plans for continuing military expansion. In recent weeks there have been news reports and analyses about the most promising emerging economies, beyond the BRICS or Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Among the promising economies mentioned is the Philippines.

At 59, Xi Jinping is a spring chicken compared with the communist veterans who have long held control in China. Current President Hu Jintao turns 70 in December.

Xi, a chemical engineer, exemplifies the rise of the next generation of Chinese leaders – tech-savvy, attuned to the challenges of globalization and (the world hopes) more liberal in their views on Chinese politics, society and international relations.

Hu, so low-key he was seen as bland, led China through a decade of robust growth, during which the country became the world’s second largest economy.

That growth is now threatened by the weakening of export-dependent China’s major markets.

Xi will be inheriting a country that is starting to experience the price of economic progress. As wages increase and the cost of living goes up in China, rising production costs are driving away investments.

With economic difficulties, Beijing wouldn’t want unrest to be fanned by nationalistic sentiments over Chinese-claimed territory. These sentiments are widely expressed in the Chinese media and blogosphere, even without government instigation, and Beijing cannot ignore the opinions of its people.

Don’t expect Beijing to soften its stand any time soon on its territorial disputes, even with Xi’s rise as paramount leader. China isn’t going to war, but it isn’t backing down either in its territorial claims.