China pushing us closer to the United States

The increasingly belligerent posture of China over Scarborough Shoal has put the Philippines in a rather precarious position, placing us in a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. During the state visit of President Noynoy Aquino to China in September last year, it looked like we were headed for greater heights in terms of bilateral relations especially on the economic front. With the coming change of leadership in China, things seem to have turned from bad to worse — as we find ourselves having to abandon a balancing act characterized by developing special ties with both China and the United States, at least economically.

Historically, the relationship between the Philippines and the United States has always been especially close, even describing the US as our ”big brother.” Even to this day, many Filipinos revere General Douglas MacArthur — whose great promise of “I shall return” kept Filipino hopes of liberation alive during World War II - with the image of the “American Caesar’s” dramatic landing in Leyte perceived as proof of the special bond between the Philippines and America.

On the other hand, wariness and distrust of foreigners have been inured in the Chinese since ancient times, embodied by the Great Wall which they started building in 7th century BC, constructing bigger and thicker portions especially between 220-206 BC during the reign of Emperor Qin Shi Huang (many of the collapsed portions were later rebuilt during the Ming Dynasty). The “Opium War” between 1839-1842 is also a bitter chapter in Chinese history, with the British dumping the product into China and turning an alarmingly large number of Chinese into addicts. 

Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin are on the way to Washington to meet with US State Department Secretary Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, an indication that we are faced with an extremely sticky situation. No matter which way we couch it, we really have no choice but to ask our traditional ally for some “advice” on how to deal with a giant bent on bullying us, claiming a territory that is unequivocally within our economic zone. 

While many of our friends including the US have maintained that the standoff should be solved diplomatically and peacefully, there’s no denying the serious concern they all have about the growing economic and political power of China and its implications in maintaining the balance of power in the region. Significantly, China will be commissioning its first aircraft carrier in August, to be deployed in the disputed areas in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea to us), with trial runs planned for carrier-based J-15 fighters (the Chinese version of the Russian Su-33).

China has warned against US “meddling” in the dispute over Scarborough Shoal, with the Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily saying the Philippines is only “pretending to be bullied,” accusing America of using other Asian countries to contain China and advance its “strategy of returning to Asia.” 

Obviously, the Chinese are not too happy with the Philippines-US Balikatan exercises as well as the joint Naval exercises between erstwhile foes US and Vietnam. Both the Philippines and Vietnam have been at odds with China over disputed territories in the Spratlys. Another Chinese irritant is the deployment of additional US Marines to Australia, described as the “latest chapter” in the over 60-year alliance between the two countries. The Americans have also come to an agreement with Japan over the relocation of US soldiers from Okinawa to Guam, Hawaii, Australia and other areas — a move seen to “improve US Marine Corps force posture in Asia-Pacific.”

Our friend US Ambassador Harry Thomas obviously cannot comment on the Scarborough impasse at this time, but he did tell us, “I can assure you that Secretary Del Rosario and President Aquino are happy with what we are doing.” There have been reports that the US Naval Command is planning to deploy an additional aircraft carrier to the Asia-Pacific region — something that a Fil-American Naval officer unwittingly confirmed when he revealed to his relatives that he will be around the Philippines very soon.

It would seem that the rivalry between two giants has proverbially put us between “the devil and the deep blue sea.” A Chinese editorial has already warned of a potential “small scale war” over Scarborough, and the worst thing that could happen — and it could happen — is that we will have to defend the disputed territory no matter how meager our resources are, especially because China seems bent on marking the contested area despite the fact that it is ours both historically and legally.

Our only real card is to diplomatically move around and warn our ASEAN friends that what China is doing clearly has far-reaching implications on commerce and freedom of navigation along the West Philippine Sea. Many countries have so far privately expressed their sympathy with what’s happening to us. The sad part is that we were already moving to a new era in our diplomacy by expanding relationships with many countries especially a giant like China, as well as those that are not members of the “American Friendship Club” like Iran or North Korea.

Given the current situation, it looks like it was Solomonic for then-President Joseph Estrada to sign the second RP-US Visiting Forces Agreement, because it would now seem that our choice is crystal clear — we have to stick very close to our traditional ally — the United States of America.

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