Iglesia endorsement seals win for Noynoy?

SOLID PUNCH: Whatever detractors think, the public endorsement of Sen. Noynoy Aquino for president by the Iglesia ni Cristo may have sealed the victory of the 50-year-old son of democracy icon Cory Aquino whether the polls, set on Monday, are postponed or not.

The INC is the only religious group that can throw a solid punch of at least five million votes. In contrast, the Catholic Church does not have a tight hold on its members estimated at 80 million. Neither can El Shaddai, which is more into a kind of evangelism business, sway its more than four million followers to any politician’s side. As for Kingdom of Christ’s Apollo Quiboloy of Davao, who has anointed administration bet Gibo Teodoro, he is more of a local preacher than a political force on a national platform.

The INC decision will help self-fulfill survey reports tending to create a bandwagon for Aquino.

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SURE BET: The Iglesia reportedly conducts its own survey before placing a bet. It never stamps its seal of approval on any candidate who in its assessment is not a sure winner — a wise move considering the disastrous effects of endorsing somebody who comes out a loser.

The INC had endorsed Erap Estrada and Gloria Arroyo, both of whom handily won when they ran for president in their heyday.

Yes, it also backed then Ferdinand Marcos in the 1986 “snap” election, but those were unusual times. Note also that there was never an official final tally that showed either Marcos or Cory Aquino actually winning that one.

Aside from Noynoy, the INC also endorsed Sen. Mar Roxas for vice president. It backed a mixed senatorial lineup of Ruffy Biazon (LP), Bong Revilla (Lakas-Kampi-CMD), Pia Cayetano (NP), Miriam Santiago (PRP), Franklin Drilon (LP), Juan Ponce Enrile (PMP), Jinggoy Estrada (PMP), Teofisto Guingona III (LP), Lito Lapid (Lakas-Kampi-CMD), Bongbong Marcos (NP), Ralph Recto (LP), and Tito Sotto (NPC).

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MAJORITY NEEDED: Even if Aquino’s share of the votes settles at just 40 percent, that plurality would be enough to carry him to victory since the rest of the votes are now being shared almost equally between erstwhile close rival Sen. Manny Villar and coming-from-behind former president Erap Estrada.

Lately, Teodoro has been able also to grab chunks of the votes that could go to Villar or Estrada, but they are not enough to put him in serious contention.

If Aquino’s handlers play it right, he can maintain a winning lead down the May 10 wire, with his two or three main pursuers splitting and scattering the balance of the votes.

With the deft handling of survey figures, more block votes and the psychological display of winning form, Aquino may just pass the 50-percent threshold to score a majority win.

Considering the dirt and bitterness of the campaign, a majority win by any candidate will be a boost to a new president’s being able to unite and lead a tired nation to peace and progress.

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MONEY & MACHINE: Despite Aquino’s having been embraced by the Iglesia, some bypassed presidential candidates are still optimistic about “command” votes coming around to pull them up on Election Day.

In the end, grizzled politicians say, money and machinery will carry the day for those who have the two key elements. National elections are still decided by local ward politics, it is added.

Whoever has maintained more mayors, governors, congressmen and warlords committed to deliver the votes – for mercenary or whatever consideration – may have an edge over candidates who simply rely on mass voters.

But having money is not a guarantee, it is pointed out, since the fund flow down the line is sometimes constricted or intercepted by operators with sticky fingers.

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MACHINE FAILURE: A new factor in the political equation is automation, involving the use of computerized gadgets meant to count and transmit the votes in the least time, with the least confusion and the highest credibility.

The problem now is that automation, or its odd version contracted by the Commission on Elections, failed in mock elections held the other day in several places to test the reliability of the precinct count optical scan (PCOS) machines.

There were reports in more than half of the test areas of PCOS units being unable to count, report and transmit correctly the votes cast for local candidates marked off in test ballots.

With the elections just five days away, this widespread failure is no laughing matter. The scandal has left even staunch supporters of automation gnashing their teeth in frustration and embarrassment.

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CRACKED CHINA: Smartmatic, the PCOS supplier, said it would replace the four-gigabyte compact flash memory cards in the machines assigned to each of the 76,000 polling precincts nationwide.

Among other data and instructions, the cards contain the “precinct information” for each PCOS unit. Each machine can be used only in a specific precinct for which each card has been configured. The cards cannot be distributed at random.

The machines with the replacement memory cards will still have to be tested, sealed, and delivered to all precincts nationwide. Smartmatic and the Comelec say they still have time to complete this herculean logistical job.

But many observers say that even if this rush repair can be done, the integrity of the automated system may have been compromised.

Like exquisite china, the P10-billion automated system has suffered a crack and any repair and polishing job on it cannot restore its original integrity.

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