Bunker buster

As I write this, we are almost certain the US will begin attacking Iran with a weapon found only in their arsenal.

Donald Trump cut short his participation in the G-7 meeting in Canada to meet with his security council. About 30 US Air Force tanker aircraft have been moved close to the theater of operations in the Middle East. Jordan put its air defense forces on high alert.

As he left Canada, Trump tweeted that the population of Tehran better begin evacuating. As soon as his meeting with his security council ended, he tweeted “unconditional surrender.” This man conducts diplomacy like a five-year old.

For more than two decades, Iran has been building a uranium enrichment facility at Fordo, near the holy city of Qom. The facility sits deep under a mountain and is heavily fortified. Israel has been trying to destroy this facility the past few days. The fortified facility withstood the worst Israel could do.

Unless this facility is destroyed, all the fighting that has been done the past week will be fruitless. Iran can quickly enrich uranium and build an atomic weapon. The Islamist regime in Tehran will remain the threat it has been before the bombardment happened.

The only thing that could possibly bust the Fordow facility is a huge conventional bomb built by the US – although never tested. This is the one single weapon – nicknamed the Mother of All Bombs – that could bring all the fighting of the last week to a definite outcome. It could only be delivered by the most advanced bomber of the US Air Force.

US involvement in the ongoing Israel-Iran war could be limited to a single precision strike using this terrifying weapon. Everything else will be a cleanup operation. Or so the hawks in Washington hope.

But the mess may be harder to clean up than the Americans may hope.

Over the past hours, the warlike rhetoric escalated from shrill to shriller. While Trump demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender, Tehran threatens to attack US bases in the region, possibly even the carrier strike force stationed at the Persian Gulf. The American embassy in Jerusalem has been shut down as a precaution.

All the conventional warfare the past few days have not significantly ruffled the world’s markets. Everything could change, however, should Iran decide to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. About a third of the world’s oil supply passes through this vulnerable strait. If the waterway is blocked, experts say the price of oil could shoot up to $100 per barrel, certainly a global supply shock that could upend an already vulnerable economy.

Although we have so much at stake in the adverse consequences of this war, the Philippines can only watch helplessly as the crisis unfolds.

Tourism of a new type

Even as chaos seems to rule the world these days, we need to continue working to build our economy’s potentials. One area with headroom to grow is our tourism industry.

The Philippines, we know, is not a tourism superpower. We rank close to the bottom in Southeast Asia for tourism arrivals. Our infrastructure is simply not there yet. Tourists feel they do not get much value for their money coming here. Personal safety is an issue, with Manila and Quezon City ranking among the top three unsafe cities in the world.

Then there is the geopolitics of it all. China is the largest market for tourists. The number of Chinese tourists going abroad will continue to rise in the coming years. But tensions between our two countries gets in the way.

Our tourism department, however, seems happy with how things are going even if we had not returned to pre-pandemic levels of arrivals. Our tourism secretary claims the industry earned P760 billion in 2024. She likewise claims that a third of all jobs in the country are directly or indirectly linked to tourism. This might be an overestimate.

Since our transport infra is lacking, given we are an archipelago, one interim measure we might focus on is improving the capacity of leisure estates. These estates are more accessible even as they might cater to a higher spending tourist bracket.

By far, our most strategic leisure estate is Entertainment City in Parañaque. It is very close to our international gateway. A number of high-end hotels and casinos are now operational, attracting big spenders.

Recently, it was announced that Ferronoux Holdings is planning to develop a 9.4-hectare parcel adjacent to the existing Okada entertainment complex. The investors seem convinced of a strong trend favoring higher end hotels and casinos. Thailand now allows entertainment complexes to operate casinos. Osaka has done the same thing.

We have an early mover advantage in that we have a developed policy framework governing the gaming industry. That advantage may be eroded, however, if we do not upgrade our entertainment complexes.

The Ferronoux investment will use land whose value is probably understated since it will be in the midst of Aseana City, City of Dreams, Solaire and the SM Mall of Asia. The projected development will create thousands of jobs and open related business opportunities.

Investments like this one allows the country to skirt around problems relating to poor infrastructure. It will help make Entertainment City a destination for an emerging category of higher spending tourists from all over the world – provided we convince them they will be safe here.