A confluence of events

Like most classic stories that never fail to pull the heartstrings, it starts out with a villain and a hero. Then there’s the hero’s death that would fan the simmering outrage of the people who rally behind the grieving widow. By some confluence of events, she accomplishes what her husband failed to do – become president and restore democracy in an impoverished land. 

Many stories of the same nature have been depicted in movies and long-running soap operas with a few plot variations here and there. In this particular case, the story happens to be true, giving credence to the perception that life can indeed be stranger than fiction.

Unfortunately, the story does not end with everybody living happily ever after. Two decades later, the people would find themselves outraged once again due to corruption and betrayal. But just like in the movies, there’s a twist in the story with the beloved widow suffering from a lingering illness that results in her death. An outpouring of sympathy and grief culminates in the clamor for change, and people turn to her son and urge him to run for president, which is what we have today — the candidacy of Noynoy Aquino.

Sympathy after all is a strong motivator especially for Filipinos who can be very emotional, a fact that even Noynoy himself acknowledges, admitting that he would not have even thought about running for president if not for the massive show of public grief after the death of his mother. Now the whole world is waiting for the story to unravel and find out what direction it would take after the elections.

If one were to believe surveys, one would conclude that Aquino is poised for victory. He has maintained his lead over Manny Villar, followed by former president Joseph Estrada. The survey conducted by DZRH reinforces the perception that Villar and Estrada are cancelling each other out, with the drop in Villar’s percentage ratings reflected in the increase in Estrada’s numbers — just like what happened in 1992 when some candidates divided the vote of their supporters.

Estrada’s strategy seems focused on cutting down Villar and catching up with Noynoy. Erap believes he can sustain his momentum, heartened by the gradual but steady increase in his survey ratings. Transformers candidate Dick Gordon loathes such surveys however, arguing that 3,000 respondents do not reflect the true will of 50 million voters. Dick accuses survey firms of conditioning the minds of voters and falsely projecting him and running mate Bayani Fernando as “unwinnable.” 

It remains to be seen whether Estrada will catch up with Noynoy in the last few days of the campaign season, or if by a strange twist of fate, the other frontrunners will join forces and solidify their votes — which seems very unlikely at this point. A lot also depends on the decision of the so-called silent majority and the undecided who might just decide to vote for a candidate like Gilbert Teodoro, whose supporters continue to nurture the hope that he will accomplish a come-from-behind victory. They believe that in the end, people will go for a candidate who, unlike the others, has kept himself above the fray and has not indulged in muckraking and mudslinging.

In the beginning, it looked like Gilbert had all the cards stacked up in his favor, particularly a powerful party machinery and the supposedly huge war chest of the administration. But the twists and turns that have occurred within the Lakas-Kampi camp plus the general feeling of anger against an unpopular administration have tilted the balance in favor of a candidate like Noynoy Aquino.

Noynoy knows this, evoking the memory of his parents, practically echoing the words of his mother, promising to change the situation and go after the corrupt. From the palpable aura of confidence radiating from the Liberal Party standard bearer, one could see that he is already convinced of victory, declaring he will not recognize the Chief Justice appointed by GMA and warning foreign businessmen and suppliers that he will void “midnight” deals entered into by the GMA administration.

Some people are beginning to feel a sense of déjà vu, likening the current situation to the conditions in 1986. Like then and now, Filipinos will vote with anger and emotion. And just like his mother before, Noynoy has become a channel by which people can express their collective fury at the current administration. Add grumbling military officials and you get a picture that’s very reminiscent of the events leading up to Edsa People Power I. 

They say the presidency is destiny - which can determine the outcome of history. The DOJ chief’s order to drop murder charges against Zaldy and Akmad Ampatuan, plus revelations that GMA appointed her manicurista to a juicy government post, are all adding to the colossal feeling of outrage already harbored by the public, the sentiment akin to white-hot fury when one is about to reach the proverbial tipping point.

Most likely, this classic story will end the way it did in the past with people embracing a candidate like Noynoy who represents the people’s anger against the current administration. Combine this with the Ampatuan case, the manicurista issue plus the likelihood of Villar and Estrada cancelling each other out similar to what happened to some candidates in 1992 - and you have an avalanche of events that herald the strong possibility of another Aquino presidency.

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