US election outcome - possible impact for us

Yesterday, November 4 in the US, was election day in that country. As this happened the whole world watched. Filipinos, especially professionals and businessmen, watched too and with deeper interest. The reason: Filipino-Americans, some four million of them, reside in America. Another reason: Philippine economy is closely tied up with that of the US.

In 2007, for instance, the two-way US merchandize trade with us amounted to $17.1 billion. Of Philippine imports 14.1 percent came from that country while 17.0 percent of its exports were for the US in foreign investment, American investors poured into the country close to $6.7 billion in the same year.

Will the same volume of trade obtain when there would be a new American president? Of course the answer is in the negative, whether a Democrat or a Republican sits in the White House. The fact is, the financial disturbances now rocking the American economy (and of many countries in Europe) would surely impact adversely on Philippine economy. The volume of import-export transaction will decline. This means that many Philippine-based industries would have to downsize their operations in the course of which many workers will be laid off. Additionally, the entry of Filipino workers in that country would also taper off, thereby lowering dollar remittance into the country.

Whoever will be the next US president some policy redirection is likely to take place. This could be based on what the candidates have articulated during their campaign or this could be something unexpected carried out in response to an urgent need. Whatever these policies will be, one thing is certain: They will be in line with the candidate's party stance. The Republicans, for instance, are reputedly conservative in approach while the Democrats are known for their left-of-center viewpoints. With a Republican president, there is likely to be minimal changes in Philippine-American relation relative to various areas, considering that the president-elect will be more inclined to continue the policy of the Bush administration.

With a Democratic chief of state, however, some changes, positive or negative for Filipinos, may be in the offing. For instance, Barack Obama's plan to go strong on alternative energy development might create a demand for raw materials, such as corn and coconut oil, available in this country. This could therefore mean more exportation of these and similar commodities. His pro-veteran stand could mean more dollar inflow as Philippine WW II veterans will most probably get more benefits. From the standpoint of ethical behavior on sex and reproduction, however, there is bound to be a disjunction because Obama's tolerance on abortion and same-sex marriage would be averse to the temper of this predominantly Catholic country.

In the military sector there could be some changes involving the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). For one thing, the Obama regime would be less inclined to foreign military operations including probably those relative to terrorism control. Hence, such activities as joint military exercises with our armed forces and combat tutelage of Filipino soldiers by American officials on modern warfare, as well as grants-in-aid of weaponry, may be scaled down or eventually abrogated.

This could be disastrous for the country's counter-insurgency drive. Lacking adequate resources, the military, handicapped as it is at present what with hand-me-down equipment and miserable logistics for its field combatants, could be considerably weakened. And the NPA's and Muslim armed adventurers would picnic in the country-side.

One positive note on the problem of terrorism is that Obama looks at this on a broader perspective. He is aware that extremism of whatever form is triggered not just by ideological or ethnic forces but also by other factors such as poverty and injustice. His approach therefore would be less militaristic and more diplomatic and humanitarian. This is significant insofar as the insurgency and Muslim militarism in this country are concerned. With Obama's strategy as our model, we may yet find a way to end these decades-long problems besetting this country.

Despite changes in American political landscape, it would be to the advantage of this country to keep its relationship with Uncle Sam continuously warm and friendly not only because the US has been a source of goodies to this hapless Republic (this year, it gave $132 millions worth of assistance to civic projects and peace drives, plus $21 millions in support of the country's Threshold Program), but also because in the field of education, science and technology that country has been our continuing source of support. 

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