Plateau

Democratic party primary elections will be held in Pennsylvania, one of a decreasing number of states where such exercises for choosing the party nominee have yet to be held. The results will likely be tight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The nominations fight between the two Democrats will likely carry into the party’s national convention several months from now. Although Obama leads in the number of delegates chosen so far, the number of popular votes and the number of states where he won over his rival, it is almost certain that he will not have enough delegates to carry the nominations contest outright.

I listened last week to a discussant in the American capital about a global survey that shows a rise in positive sentiment towards the US. That has been attributed to the worldwide interest generated by the primaries being held where a black man and a white woman are contesting a major party’s nomination for the presidency. The US never had a black person or a woman to lead it.

The Republican Party is not generating the same amount of global interest, however. The nominations process for that party is not effectively done, with the usual white man leading the party into next November’s elections.

That usual white man, John McCain, could very well snatch the presidency despite the gross unpopularity of incumbent Republican George W. Bush. The conservative bailiwicks of the Republican Party are being consolidated, even as the rival Democratic Party remains torn in a bitter fraternal nominations contest.

The Democratic Party has built a reputation of sorts for an uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college delegates to George W. Bush.

Polls are now showing an increasing number of Democratic voters saying they will vote for McCain if their favored nominee does not get the party’s nomination. Voters favoring Obama have gotten to dislike Hillary Clinton so much that they would vote Republican if she becomes the nominee. The same stands for a number of Clinton supporters.

This unusual phenomenon is attributed to the sharp verbal attacks the Democratic contenders have hurled against each other. The jabbing could not be contained between the contending camps within the Democratic Party while, on the Republican side, McCain is now virtually running the main campaign. He used the luxury of an early conclusion to his party’s nominations process to tour several foreign capitals, appearing very presidential.

Too, domestic and foreign enthusiasm for either of the Democratic Party contenders appears to have reached a plateau.

There are several reasons for this. The principal one being that the bitter personal attacks against each other revealed the personal flaws of the contenders and magnified areas of doubt about each of them.

Obama, although articulate and charismatic, appears too inexperienced to handle the tough duties of the American president. He is seen as being a bit superficial in his grasp of policy issues, especially those concerning a domestic economy that is not slipping into a recession.

Hillary Clinton is facing a growing credibility gap for things she has “misstated.” Last month she claimed to have visited the Balkans “under sniper fire”. Television footage of the event showed she was under no threat at all during that visit. There is now rigorous scrutiny over what she really did when she was First Lady to merit the claim that she was an “experienced” leader.

Both Clinton and Obama are equally guilty of pandering to populist sentiments opposed to the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). There are several constituencies who blame free trade as the cause for rising unemployment in the US.

The more economically literate Americans, however, understand that NAFTA has brought more benefit to the US than distress. The data speak eloquently.

While the number of manufacturing jobs in the US dropped since NAFTA came into force, manufacturing output rose by a dramatic 58% between 1993 and 2006. This means US plants are producing more goods while employing less workers. American exports are at a record high. Trade among the NAFTA partners — the US, Canada and Mexico — tripled since 1993. Overall employment in the US has grown 24% during the years since NAFTA came into force and average unemployment has actually decreased since the free trade area came into effect.

If there is any real reason workers in some sectors of US manufacturing are hurting, it could not be NAFTA. It should be attributed to the strong rise of China as a manufacturing superpower.

Another issue where the two Democratic aspirants pander too much to popular sentiment is the matter about withdrawal from Iraq. Although they have carefully stepped back from earlier policy positions, both Clinton and Obama had called for immediate withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East nation they invaded.

It is obvious that an abrupt US troop withdrawal will bring collapse and chaos to Iraq, damaging US interests in the long run. In the face of that obvious prospect, the calls for abrupt withdrawal cannot but be irresponsible.

The proposed economic programs of both Clinton and Obama will require either massive new taxes or massive deficit spending. Both options could be fatal for an economy running into recession.

For these reasons, enthusiasm for either Clinton or Obama has begun to wane in the US as in the rest of the world. As they claw at each other, McCain will appear more and more to be the intelligent choice.