How to win a war

As expected, coup plot sympathizers had nothing good to say about the lifting of the state of emergency. Instead it became a field day for skepticism and criticism. It does not matter. For the sake of the country, President GMA is tactically correct to lift the proclamation. The state of emergency may have helped to weed out the civil-military coup plotters but longer than that, the same proclamation would be a lethal weapon against her. If she is pushed against the wall, she did well to remove the wall. It has less to do with fear than it is with a strategy on how to win a war.

Curiously, economic advisers of President GMA understood the importance of that fact. Although they were looking at GDP figures, the exchange rate and credit ratings, in a sense it was they were inadvertently more militaristic (good militarism) in assessing the situation and whether it was time to lift the state of emergency.

As the greatest military strategist taught Chinese emperors hundreds of years ago, "the best way to win a war is not to fight", "to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting." This, Sun Tzu adds, is the method of attacking by stratagem. But then if you have to fight, it must be as short as possible because ‘there is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. Whether they were reading Sun Tzu or not, it makes a lot of sense.

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It is good former President FVR has added his voice to those who hailed the lifting of Proclamation 1017. This is a signal to reconstruct the Lakas-CMD party triumvirate of President GMA, FVR and Speaker JDV which very nearly was destroyed by last week’s events. It is time to return the country on track for political reform. The former president may not have been fully informed on the fast developing threat last Friday and not having been fully informed, he could not really appreciate the President’s dilemma.

I hope he will lead the party triumvirate to retrace its steps back to political reform through charter change. Indeed, he will be the President’s valuable ally in her struggle to steer the ship of state away from military adventurers and political opportunists.

This is a job tailor-fitted for Speaker JDV. Ever the great reconciler and referee it is he who can bring President GMA and FVR together again to put their differences behind. No doubt danger still lurks and she will need all the help from her allies. In this struggle there can be no better ally of the President than FVR who understands the military mind and commands the military’s respect. On the other hand if FVR truly wants political reforms through charter change then, his natural partners in this great effort, are President GMA and Speaker JDV. He should stick to them as a matter of party principle.

I hope FVR remembers what he had often said when cautioning warring parties, "let us focus on what unites rather than what divides us." That advice goes for the triumvirate too. Indeed the three cannot afford to break up now with the enemies of reform lying in wait to attack. Everything must be done to ensure the solidity of the party triumvirate before competing interests sow intrigue.

The Marines may have legitimate grievances but that was not what forced President GMA to proclaim the state of emergency but that the military should be used by political opportunists. And she has been proven right. In hindsight, the military kept their cool and this must be emphasized – the military made us proud on those perilous days in Fort Bonifacio. It will be useless to try to win over the skeptics. With the lifting of 1017, they have lost their cause.

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Not a few of those who wrote in on the failed coup attempt regret that Cory should have led it. She had a legacy to preserve but now she is just one of the scheming political opportunists who want to seize power. It may not look so simple or clear cut because there will be exceptions and differences, but Cory is inevitably part of what can be described as the Philippine version of the French ancien regime. The French popularized the term to mean old rule or old order. In France it meant the social and political system established in France under the Valois and Bourbon dynasties. It was a feudal system under the control of a powerful absolute monarchy and blessing of the established Church. This was how Europe was organized since the 8th century.

Our own ‘ancien regime’ was partly shaped historically from the Spanish colonial period. It is a political alliance of the elite in church, political and business oligarchies. In Europe, no one alive during the ancien régime saw themselves as living under an "Old Order". That can be said of our own ‘ancien regime’ too. The same forces are with us today – an old order which refuses to give way to a new.

Little has been said about the church’s role in the attempted coup. But TIME, in its article, describing the meeting held at the home of Jose Cojuangco, brother of former Philippine President Corazon Aquino, does. Although they said they were only making plans for EDSA celebrations, one of the ringleaders called it a "withdrawal of support" from President Arroyo.

Here was the plan according to TIME:

"Pastor Saycon, a military component was to march on Friday morning to the EDSA Shrine in Manila, where the 20th anniversary of the People Power revolution was to be celebrated. At the shrine they would be met by a contingent of Catholic bishops, and a Marine general would read a statement withdrawing support from Arroyo’s government. The bishops, according to Saycon, had one request: that the coup be bloodless. More than a dozen middle-level officials and businessmen were at the meeting, which went well past one in the morning. While Cojuangco’s daughter Mikee kept the buffet table piled high with chicken sandwiches, macaroni salad, corn and cookies, Pastor Saycon, a businessman and longtime Arroyo critic, planned for a new government.

As the others listened, Saycon spoke over the phone to a person he identified as an American official in Washington, assuring him that the post-coup regime would still be friendly to the US. "You will still be our friend, not China," he said. Then, Saycon phoned a man whom he addressed as "Delta" and identified as General Lim. Over the speaker phone, Lim confirmed that it was "all systems go" for the planned movement against Arroyo."

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