Leave out the panic

I visited the nearest Mercury drug store recently to ask for the medicine Tamiflu which is said to be the only effective drug for avian flu. I was told there was none available and they don’t know when the new stocks will come in. "Laging ubos" the girl behind the counter said. But I could leave my telephone number so they could call when it becomes available again. I did leave my telephone number but I doubt whether she would call me. Why should she bother when so many are already in the queue to buy up the stocks as soon as they appear on the shelf. Couple that with news that less people are buying chicken nowadays and we have the making of an unacceptable ‘panic’ on an uncertain impending ‘pandemic’.

With its customary perceptive editorials, Economist pointed out ‘it may or may not occur’, but it is good to be prepared. It is that portion on ‘it may or may not occur’ which grabbed my attention when others have said this was only a matter of time and quite ‘inevitable.’ This, I thought, was worth passing on to my readers who would not have the chance to read the editorial.

It is one thing to be prepared and quite another to be unnecessarily panicked. It is like a prankster shouting ‘fire’ and every one dashes for the door. But what if there isn’t a fire and many are crushed to their death?

As the Economist points out, "it may have something to do with ineffective government response to other disasters this year. Still a look at influenza pandemics in the 20th century is reason enough to panic. For example, when new influenza A virus subtypes caused three pandemics, these spread around the world within one year of being detected:

In 1918-19, it was called "Spanish flu," killing more than 500,000 in the United States, and up to 50 million people worldwide. And in case you think that it happened to senior citizens, it was found out that nearly half of those who died were young, healthy adults. It hit again in 1957-58 with the ‘Asian flu’ and in 1968-69 with the’ Hong Kong flu. According to experts Influenza A (H1N1) viruses still circulate today after being introduced again into the human population in the 1970s. Both the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemics were caused by viruses containing a combination of genes from a human influenza virus and an avian influenza virus. With these statistics, it can be very frightening.

But there is also another reason. Because of criticism with the way the US government dealt with Katrina, Economist suggests that the question might be asked whether politics might not be involved in feeding a public panic and then ‘covering themselves by promising to spend lavishly against a threat which may never materialize and to reduce a risk which they do not understand.’

Isn’t that a refreshing perspective on bird flu? "To tackle these questions is not to counsel complacency but to apply the kind of test which is required in any kind of disaster planning, not least because the world is an inherently dangerous place and it is impossible to plan against every possible disaster. With the media full of warning of impending mass death, an overreaction is all too possible," Economist adds. I could not agree more.

This is of course not the first time when the warning on ‘impending’ doom hurt more than the doom itself which never happened in the first place. Economist gives two examples in the past, one was ‘the ill conceived crackdown on terrorist finance’ and another ‘the fuss about the millennium bug’ that was supposed to bring the world to a halt in 2000 but in the end hardly caused a ripple.

Economist says ‘even scientists who believe that bird flu will mutate into a form highly contagious to humans cannot say for certain that this will happen or when it is likely to happen if it does or how deadly such a new variety will be.’ Moreover, if it did occur, there would hardly be time to be ‘ready’ for it. "The unpalatable truth is that if the current version of avian influenza turns into a human pandemic in the near future, there is probably not enough time for most countries to stop it from spreading or to cope with its effects."

Instead of dashing from one drugstore to the next, it may be better if we prepared for a future when it may happen (at any time) and we would then be ready for it. The bird flu scare may fade away but there will always be the threat of another virus whether it is bird flu or some other virus. Economist is a serious magazine and it was good to read a calming article which ended with a fact which we might do well to accept: "we live ‘in an increasingly interconnected world, viruses, like people, travel more easily."

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It was good to see front page pictures of Muslims celebrating "Eid’ l Fitr", the equivalent of our Christmas. To my many Muslim friends, "Eid Mubarak" (hope I got that one right!). Much of the misunderstanding between Muslims and Christians stem from their lack of knowledge about each other. And as someone said wisely, ‘we fear what we do not know.’

By the way, it will not be long when we will have a ready channel from which we might access a common world between Muslims and Christians with the news that Al-Jazeera, the well known Arab channel will soon start broadcasting its English version. I hear that it promises a star-studded stable of broadcasters. It promises that these journalists will be free from editorial interference and vested interests. According to a recent article written about the group it will belie what the great American journalist H.L. Mencken once said in his usual witty style that "freedom of the press is limited to those who own one".

I hear Al-Jazeera will have the backing of huge capital but it will take an alternative stance in a world dominated by what it calls the stranglehold that a ‘small number of multi-national corporations have on the world press.’ The promise of a non-western perspective in international media has been kicked around for sometime now so it is good if it is all coming true soon. I don’t think anyone is happy with an international press owned by a few interests with their own agendas. The Arab media group says we are at a stage in world history when corporate interests have overtaken the public interest and would like to do something different. Just how will they do it in a region like the Middle East?

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MISCELLANY. I remember that some years back a Gawad Kalinga award to a town mayor (or was it a governor?) for his idea of a cemetery as a forest park. I have forgotten the name of the place or the mayor but his idea should be emulated in other parts of the country. Instead of tombstones, the bereaved could plant a tree on the site where their loved one is buried. In time, that cemetery will be a forest park with beautiful trees lining shaded walks. Nice thought for todos los santos.

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My e-mail is cpedrosa@gmail.com