Can the president hold on?

From all indications, the president is setting up a Great Wall of China.

GMA is not resigning, but is determined to continue her term. Any plan to step down from the presidency is out of the question. She has instructed allies in both houses of Congress to frustrate any attempt to impeach her.

In the field of propaganda, the line is still the speech of June 27. "I am sorry for the lapse of judgment, but no one can stop me from pursuing my mandate and my reform measures" -that is essentially the message that she told the nation. That message continues to be repeated in the daily briefings of press secretary Ignacio Bunye.

She has also intensified her political work, visiting her bailiwicks in the provinces in an attempt to illustrate that her mandate is genuine. In Iloilo, the local officials said the president can hold the office in Panay if she is not liked in Manila. I was told that many other local officials carried that line in the president's visits in many localities. ULAP officials are the most articulate in calling on critics to stop the political assault on the presidency.

In truth, the president is not without a political base, despite the negative publicity she is getting from media. Let us review the forces that are for her and the forces arrayed against here. We are doing this as the president enters a critical week.

She has still the support of larger political parties like the Lakas and the Liberal Party, with Kampi as part of the larger coalition. The Nationalist People's Coalition of Danding Cojuangco is part of the opposition, but in the House, it is a member of the rainbow group of Speaker Jose de Venecia. To this day, and this should be said, NPC has not proposed any impeachment move against the president.

Big business, the group that helped topple Marcos and Estrada, is still for GMA. The members of the chambers of commerce and the Makati Business Club, according to my sources, fear that if the president is toppled, the group of Joseph Estrada might be returned to power, a prospect they want to avoid. If the statements of MBC Secretary General Bill Luz are any indication, big business favors the setting up of a Truth Commission that will investigate the charges against GMA. They don't like Congress to conduct the investigation.

The church is divided on the fate of GMA. The speculation is that majority of the clergy still wants to give GMA a chance. This should explain why the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines has not come up with a unified position. But this neutrality may change this week, according to sources.

We have come to respect the opinions of the civil society because of their role in EDSA 1 and 2. They remain either neutral or pro-GMA. Essentially, they follow today the political stand of big business. They are also for the setting up of a Truth Commission.

We asked the opposition on Saturday whether they are preparing an impeachment resolution in the House. The answer is no, and the one who is saying that is Francis Escudero, the House Minority Leader. An added roadblock is the resolution filed by Marcos loyalist Oliver Lozano which in effect preempted the opposition. In any case, Escudero believes that an impeachment resolution filed today won't prosper in the House, much more in the Senate.

GMA's crisis managers in the Palace led by political adviser Gabriel Claudio are frenziedly working to restore normalcy in the political life of the nation. The presidency has been severely damaged, but Claudio is hoping that GMA can weather the storm.

On the evening that the president delivered her "I'm Sorry Speech", a former official of the Estrada government whispered to me. "She may be a little girl, but she is tough. She is stronger than her father. She will fight on."