Dilemma

Here’s the dilemma: people want the corrupt to be punished, no matter how close they are — or rather, especially if they are close — to President Arroyo. But people are also worried that if the President is fatally wounded by the latest scandals, someone worse could take over.

The constitutional successor is Vice President Noli de Castro, who knows enough not to betray any eagerness to become president.

Next in line is Senate President Franklin Drilon, who can’t even get a firm grip on the Senate. Next is Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. and then Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr. I don’t think the people now clamoring for regime change are interested in installing the last two gentlemen in the seat of power.

There is no lack of volunteers who want to take over, in case De Castro is truly not interested and constitutional succession is ignored. All are unpalatable. There’s the bunch of self-styled messiahs led by retired Gen. Fortunato Abat, who has made no secret of his willingness to head a civilian-military junta or whatever you want to call it.

Abat is part of a group of retired generals who refuse to fade away, all of them identified with former President Fidel Ramos. The prospect of their takeover is enough to pummel the peso and stock market.

For some reason, Ramos keeps reassuring President Arroyo that he’s not part of any mischief against her administration, even when he’s not being implicated. Ramos himself is widely perceived to be interested in a political comeback.

Another ex-president, Joseph Estrada, surely won’t mind a return to power. The mistresses and cronies and Atong Ang won’t mind either.

Someone else from the opposition can take over — if the camps of Senators Edgardo Angara and Panfilo Lacson can agree on anything.

Susan Roces, widow of Fernando Poe Jr., declined to comment yesterday on allegations of cheating sanctioned by the President. Susan looks determined to stay out of the dirty world of politics.

Then there’s a bunch of civil society types who look like they’re missing their days of controlling smuggling and illegal gambling activities.

There is, of course, the possibility that Asia’s Iron Lady (with a question mark) will weather this political tsunami, and there will be no need to worry about her successor.

But after the Senate testimony yesterday of Sandra Cam (now a.k.a. SCam), the President will need to do something drastic to survive.

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Has Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, child of providence, lost the mandate of heaven?

She sought guidance from Our Lady of Rosales in Pangasinan late Wednesday night, but it will take more than prayer power to survive this crisis.

The most urgent concern is to find a credible body that will investigate all the accusations against her husband, eldest son and brother-in-law. The Department of Justice won’t do. When the President says no one is above the law, she will have to show that she means it.

The bar of good behavior is higher for those who walk the corridors of power. Formal charges must be filed, and the President must show that the rule of law prevails in this country.

Jose Pidal is back in the limelight, and Cam is a compelling witness. The public never really bought that story about Iggy Arroyo being Jose Pidal, but shrugged and left the matter hanging when Lacson lost his principal witness.

Cam’s testimony gathered all the loose ends together and gave a clearer picture. Or at least that’s the public perception. Is it unfair to condemn people based on perception? Of course it is, but such is life in this weak republic.

The President may keep her post, but the jueteng testimonies are still damaging enough to create long-term instability that will set back all her efforts to bring progress to the nation.

If all these scandals are just part of political demolition, the administration is losing the propaganda war.

Even the not-too-subtle effort to distract the nation from the jueteng scandal has backfired, with Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye clumsily backpedaling yesterday on his statement about the wiretapped conversation. Bunye was also prompted to announce that he was not going to resign. Such announcements in this country are usually taken to mean that an official is in fact under pressure to quit.

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Despite official denials, Malacañang is conducting a head count of supporters. So far the President still has on her side the majority in the House of Representatives, where an impeachment complaint must emanate. She has the business community. Yesterday the American diplomat her government nearly expelled, Chargé d’Affaires Joseph Mussomeli, expressed Washington’s "unequivocal support for the duly elected (Philippine) government." And the Church — although the jueteng exposé is backed by several bishops — has not announced a withdrawal of support from the President in favor of someone else.

Only the people who have long opposed Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo are demanding her resignation. So far.

The President, of course, can step down out of delicadeza, as suggested by certain quarters. But that is usually seen here as an admission of guilt. And so far no one has linked her directly to jueteng payoffs or produced incontrovertible proof implicating her in poll fraud.

Even her Vice President has expressed his support for her. But then De Castro can’t say otherwise, just as GMA could not side openly with the opposition during the final days of Erap’s presidency.

The thought of a De Castro presidency is making some quarters shudder. One argument to block his assumption of the nation’s top post, in case there is a vacancy, is that his victory will be just as tainted as the President’s if she is ousted due to her purported phone conversation that implicated her in poll fraud. That CD of the intercepted conversation, however, is inadmissible as evidence in an impeachment or a judicial proceeding, whether or not the recording is authentic.

If the President is going to be ousted, it will have to be over the jueteng scandal, and Vice President Noli will still be the constitutional successor.

Which brings the nation back to its dilemma…