Justice delayed

On Joseph Estrada’s 68th birthday yesterday, his chief counsel wished him acquittal within the year.

Getting acquittal is not improbable, especially now that even prosecution witness Luis "Chavit" Singson has expressed willingness to reconcile with the former president.

Getting that wish within the year, however, is another story.

Erap’s camp observes that whatever the verdict in his case, it could be disastrous for the administration. That’s not just opposition propaganda.

If Erap is acquitted, we will never hear the end of his lament about injustice, and how he was robbed of the presidency by the gang that is still in power.

If he teams up with Susan Roces, widow of his bosom buddy Fernando Poe Jr., who is accusing the administration of stealing the presidency in the 2004 elections, it will be a potent combination that can spell protracted trouble for Malacañang. This is trouble that the administration cannot afford amid a looming fiscal crisis.

If Erap is convicted, as promised by prosecutors, the trouble that can be stirred up by his diehard followers will depend on the credibility of the case against him. If the conviction is credible, whatever unrest is stirred up can be manageable.

What may be worrisome for the administration is the strong possibility that Erap will seek pardon. President Arroyo, who holds no personal grudge against her predecessor, will likely be eager to grant pardon. But how will the EDSA II forces react?

These days there is growing suspicion in the opposition that the administration intends to simply let the plunder case drag on for the next six years. By that time, if Erap manages to remain politically relevant, any fallout from the verdict in his case can land in the lap of the new president. Or prime minister, if Joe de Venecia gets his shift to a parliamentary form of government.

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It is no secret that shortly after EDSA II, President Arroyo was open to sending Erap into exile, a la Ferdinand Marcos. Erap, however, did not want to suffer the same fate as his former political patron; there was going to be no American airlift (kidnapping, says Imeldific) for him to Hawaii, or even to Paoay, Ilocos Norte.

Soon Erap was making loud noises about his illegal ouster, and he was telling anyone who cared to listen that he never resigned.

That left the administration with no choice but to indict him for corruption. And because there was a new law on plunder, he became the poster boy for the administration’s resolve to enforce the law and crack down on large-scale graft.

For a while the administration stayed on message, placing him under arrest and keeping him locked up despite the May 1 siege of Malacañang by his supporters.

Sure, the arrest was ordered by the Sandiganbayan, and the judiciary is supposed to be independent of the executive. But there was widespread perception that a deposed president could be placed under arrest and detained without bail only with a go-signal from Malacañang.

That perception persists to this day, as Erap the jailbird continues to receive VIP treatment and the administration’s message against corruption becomes muddled. The courts were especially lenient during election year 2004, and only a naïf will think that was mere coincidence.

* * *

Erap makes it harder for anyone to send him to death row because even in detention, the man brims with charisma and aw shucks charm. The Erap jokes are still there, and he seems willing — at least on the surface — to forgive and forget.

Asked if he was willing to reconcile with Chavit Singson, Erap surprisingly did not reply that Singson could shove reconciliation up where it belongs. You’d think Erap would have first railed about betrayal by his former drinking buddy, who had claimed Erap had tried to have him assassinated, and whose revelations about living it up with Erap led to the unprecedented impeachment of a president.

Instead Erap chuckled when asked about reconciliation, then indicated openness to it, although he sent word that Singson should stay out of his birthday party in Tanay yesterday.

Then again, Erap’s response wasn’t entirely out of character. Shortly after EDSA II, the word from the Erap camp was that he was reserving a special place in hell for Angelo Reyes, his kumpare and military chief whose defection together with all the military service commanders sealed the collapse of the Estrada administration.

Erap, however, reconciled with Reyes many months ago. Certainly there will always be a grudge, and I doubt if Erap will ever trust Reyes again. But the two have met, shook hands and are back in talking terms.

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Singson’s conciliatory statements have fueled speculation that he might withdraw as prosecution witness in the plunder trial, although he can still be summoned as a hostile witness. Recent reports said Singson was threatening to bolt the administration. The last time he deserted a president, impeachment followed. Is he planning to ignite another political conflagration?

Perhaps Singson is simply pursuing the reconciliation policy of the Arroyo administration. The government isn’t dropping the plunder charge. In lieu of this, Erap can enjoy all the VIP treatment he wants. As a former president — one who won by the largest margin ever in free elections — he is definitely no ordinary jailbird, and the nation can’t begrudge him special treatment.

But where do we draw the line on VIP treatment? The public can get confused.

Erap’s trial for plunder was supposed to be a showcase of Philippine resolve to fight corruption. Instead we’re seeing yet another example of the glacial pace of justice in this country. And the way the courts are bending over backwards to accommodate Erap’s every whim, his trial is in danger of deteriorating into a farce.

Whatever the outcome of his trial, there will be adverse consequences for the administration. Any political fallout, however, can be mitigated by a credible trial.

Credibility requires not only convincing evidence but also speedy adjudication. And that kind of speed requires political resolve.