Of breakaways and breakdowns

Less than a month before the May 2004 elections, a candidate still has to break away from the pack of presidential wannabes. Neither massive popularity nor unbridled use of government resources has allowed a front runner to streak away and leave the other eating his or her dust. Matching each other stride for stride in the final lap of this presidential race, neither challenger Poe nor incumbent president Arroyo has managed to gain a decisive advantage over the other.

As for the three other presidentiables, there is still some reason for hopefulness. Most analysts probably err in reading these candidates’ current survey placements as forgone obituaries. Close to half of the nation’s voters are still lacking a presidential choice or view their current preference with some vacillation. Those with relatively firm choices now – admitting to only a "small possibility" of change come election time – comprise the other half. Given these figures, the arithmetic of current voter preferences theoretically allows any of the lagging presidentiables to overtake the present front runners come May 10, 2004.

Unlikely perhaps, but not unthinkable. In politics, competent analysts have come to realize that there is no such thing as a surprise-free scenario. Surprises do come about with enough regularity in politics and only the most imprudent or naïve rule out what simple arithmetic concedes is possible. Additionally, one may note that the context here is Philippine politics, where the impossible only takes a little more time effecting. A Roco, Lacson or Villanueva victory may appear to be an incredible development now but it would be foolish to forbid it in prognosticating the coming elections

A breakaway candidacy may yet occur for any of those coveting the presidency. One may gain it the hard way, by efficiently utilizing government resources that an incumbent president could award to those best assisting her candidacy. While political patronage may be deplored by many, few will challenge its effectiveness in developing loyalties that last long enough to serve a candidate’s electoral needs.

For those not fortunate enough to be a sitting president, the hard way may involve reinventing oneself to neutralize allergies to presidential forums, public debates and — most critical of all – media encounters where timely humor may make all the difference in being perceived as an inveterate "pikon" or a gallant presidentiable. The hard way may also require developing a pragmatic sense of indispensable alliances and the precise timing when collaborative work must be effected. (With less than a month before elections, the hard way implies that all these things now have to be learned extremely fast and executed even faster. There is no time for dry runs, dress rehearsals and, alas, no time for political retakes.)

A breakaway candidacy also may come about the easy way. A presidentiable simply prays that his/her competitors are overwhelmed by folly and effectively gifts him/her with the presidency. One’s protagonists may persist with their customary arrogance, disdaining to help educate the public on the challenges of democratic governance and refusing to enlighten voters on how they intend to initially mitigate and eventually overcome the historic ills of a precariously tottering republic. Folly may also be reflected by the reluctance of presidential candidates to unify in confronting a common adversary, one that would definitely overwhelm should they remain divided.

A breakaway candidacy of this sort requires as a sine qua non the continuing breakdown of the most presidentiables’ persona — that extremely seductive image of winnability since invincibility is no longer a credible option at this stage – and campaign machinery. The fortunate candidate effects a breakaway not because of any demonstrable political virtuosity, but because of the competition’s inability to read current political conditions or to anticipate possible disruptions in historical political trends. (For instance, no presidential candidate appears to have prepared for the current corruption of ethnic voting — a development that repudiates a long historical trend in Philippine elections.) Additionally, a particular candidate’s breaking away could be fortuitously precipitated by the competition’s incompetence in doing organizational work and fatal tendency towards fulsome folly. Forgetting that a major part of election is addition, many candidates actually waste precious time and other resources trying to win over the already converted. Ready applause gets to be preferred to hard to gain but enduring political support.

This undeserved breakaway comes about when the public is forced to make a political choice between a candidate that they already know and can somehow survive and another that they are not familiar with and suspect could be worse.

Thus confronted, Filipinos may opt to be conservative and a candidate’s terrible breakaway could be facilitated.