Targetting five million as breakaway margin

If Reps. Francis Escudero and Mike Defensor ever agree on anything these days, it’s on "five million." Speaking for Fernando Poe Jr., Escudero always cites the magic number. Like, when 90 administration incumbents defected to Poe’s camp, he gushed: "This is the start of a landslide to (Poe’s) victory by five million votes." Likewise Defensor, as spokesman for Gloria Arroyo. About the seven petitions to disqualify her, he snorted: "They are desperate because they see (Arroyo) winning by a five-million margin."

The figure is not empty forecast by either side. It’s real target, though for different reasons. For Poe’s number crunchers, five million is the ideal edge to thwart any dagdag-bawas (vote padding-shaving). For Arroyo’s strategists, five million is the convincing superiority that will make for stable government.

Arroyo and Poe were statistically tied in two February surveys at 30 percent or so. A third poll reportedly will come out soon for March with the same ratings. If the surveys hold till election day, that’s roughly 9.6 million votes each, with victory going either way by a few thousands. It would be no different from the slim 25,600-margin that Taiwan’s president got last month from 13 million voters, with which he’s cornered into a recount. The five-million target thus becomes all the more pressing for both Arroyo and Poe.

Arroyo’s strategists figure that, ranged against Poe’s popularity, she could win by half a million votes at most. That would be worse than Fidel Ramos’s 900,000-margin over Miriam Santiago in ’92. At that time, losers Danding Cojuangco, Imelda Marcos, Ramon Mitra Jr., Salvador Laurel and Jovito Salonga graciously upheld Ramos two weeks after the results became official. It cannot be expected this time – not with the way Poe’s followers take to the streets at the slightest agitation. In which case, an Arroyo campaigner sighs, "we’ll have more of the same destabilization plots and non-stop politicking." A Lakas senior officer adds: "Arroyo will be unable to govern."

A breakaway from the statistical tie can come from unification – Poe with Panfilo Lacson; Arroyo with Raul Roco and Eddie Villanueva.

Lacson and Roco reportedly tied in the March survey at 15 percent. That’s roughly 4.8 million voters each, close enough to the five-million margin targetted by Poe and Arroyo.

Lacson is not about to slide out, however. He gained three points in March from February’s 12 percent. Lacson dismisses surveys as hogwash. He is banking instead on a religious sect that is working behind the scenes to get Poe and Lacson to at least talk. No less than Poe’s running mate Loren Legarda is now serving as go-between.

Roco’s campaign is too far gone for him to consider unification with Arroyo. He announced his candidacy as far back as April 2002, then left Arroyo’s Cabinet six months later to make himself visible as a third choice. Roco used to lead all the polls, but only because Poe and Arroyo had not formally declared their presidential bids. His consistent decline since then has made him change tacks from inspirational speeches to angry attacks on Arroyo. Often has he said that if he and Arroyo must reunite, the latter should withdraw from the race. He once surprised supporters by saying, with a tinge of bitterness, that if he’d ever back out, it would be for Lacson.

Villanueva’s campaign, too, has drifted too far from Arroyo, whose rise to the presidency in 2001 he had supported. He entered the race with a message of return to morality. The latest survey will show Villanueva to have doubled his rating, but then, he’s coming from a dismal 1.5 percent. He too does not subscribe to surveys. As an evangelist, his conviction in morality is so strong that he’s sure his two million core campaigners can proselytize seven voters each, for a 14-million runaway on election day.

Arroyo nonetheless keeps lines open to Roco and Villanueva. Their main men are old pals – comrades in EDSA-1 against Ferdinand Marcos and EDSA-2 against Joseph Estrada. A Poe victory would mean a return of their vanquished foes, given that the actor’s senatorial ticket represents the Marcos and Estrada regimes.

If only for their common fear, unification remains an option. Allies of Arroyo, Roco and Villanueva continue to meet regularly. While gingerly avoiding talk of anyone’s withdrawal, they have come to agree that Poe’s rising star must be shot down. They share the suspicion that shadowy advisers will run the show in a Poe presidency.

An emerging idea is for the three to join the next presidential debate, without Poe and Lacson. While a debate could be bruising, especially for Arroyo because she must defend her programs and policies as an incumbent, it would also send a strong message. Voters will get the idea that, to move the country forward and not backward to Marcos or Estrada, their choice should only be from among Arroyo, Roco and Villanueva.

Patriotism, in effect, is the magnet to unification. But who of the three will be patriotic enough to sacrifice ambition? Arroyo’s backers point to her survey lead as softener for the other two to give her the five-million margin. Roco maintains that his third force has a chance. Villanueva is counting on his two million-strong army of volunteers to deliver seven-fold.

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