Trust first

I have been watching with fascination how the "roadmap" for peace in the Middle East has been moving along.

The Palestinians have committed to it. Ariel Sharon’s right-wing Cabinet approved the plan the other day by an absolute majority. The crucial first steps have been taken towards the historic settlement of a 2,000-year old conflict.

President George W. Bush was so taken by the progress the "roadmap" achieved the past few days that he has organized a summit in Egypt with the main parties to this budding accord.

By accepting the "roadmap", the Sharon government in Tel Aviv has taken a dramatic step: Israel now recognizes the right of a Palestinian state to exist.

By accepting that same "roadmap", the Palestinian authority takes an unprecedented step. It has recognized Israel’s right to exist as a state.

Considering these were the essential principles that both sides denied each other for generations, the progress of the "roadmap" the past few days can only be described as exhilarating. Driven by the weight of expectation, the dramatic turn of events will take the world on a roller coaster ride the next few weeks.

How was it possible that this "roadmap" could now make so much gain after centuries of hatred and war between the Jews and the Palestinians?

The simple answer to a complex unfolding is trust. All parties to the conflict have, over the last few years, achieved an unprecedented level of trust. It is trust reinforced by mechanisms of accountability and processes by which responsibility could be distributed.

The establishment of a Palestinian Authority was an important event. It allowed the evolution of a mechanism where the fractious Palestinians could be represented by a singular authority. It likewise allowed a process through which a new generation of leaders – more moderate and more realistic – could emerge.

It is important to the process that Yasir Arafat willingly dismounts from his post of leadership and allows a new generation of Palestinian leaders to emerge. His merits notwithstanding, his passion and his past have made him a hindrance to the progress of peace in his land.

This week, the Palestinian Authority, in a startling move, announced that as Israelis troops withdraw from Palestinian land, all terrorist attacks shall cease. This includes attacks mounted by the radical Hamas faction.

Startling as that announcement might be, there is enough reason to be confident that the Palestinian Authority will stand by its word and enforce its decision – even as that might require shooting at fellow Palestinians who might persist on the worn-out tactics of the past.

There is likewise enough reason to be confident that the Israeli government will be able to enforce its commitment down the line. The Sharon government is not some flimsy liberal alliance likely to be challenged from the Right. The Sharon government is the Right.

It is important, too, that the Cold War has ended and that the solitary superpower, the US, has come crashing down on erstwhile radical terrorist sanctuaries from Afghanistan to Iraq.

During the Cold War, the former USSR played the Palestinian-Arab card as part of the general effort to pressure the West. The USSR sold weapons either directly or indirectly to "liberation movements", many of which were provided sanctuaries by client states such as Syria.

Before the "war on terror" went into full gear, it was possible for states such as Saudi Arabia to quietly slip money to radical Arab movements to keep them going. Radical nationalist regimes such as Libya under Khadaffy, Egypt before during the rule of the Nasserites, Syria in its radical heyday, Iraq under Saddam, and even Jordan during the wild and wooly days of the late King Hussein provided logistics to radical Palestinian groups. Even Iran, in the name of radical Islam, extended support to the most militant Palestinian factions.

But now the dynamics have changed. The Taliban was ousted from power in Afghanistan by a US led coalition. Saddam was ousted from power in Iraq. Libya, Syria and Iran are feeling the pressure of the US-led "war on terror."

With American military might embedded firmly in the region, the radical Palestinian factions and their fundamentalist supporters have lost the old sanctuaries they once enjoyed. Having lost those sanctuaries, they have likewise lost influence. It was influence based on their ability to indulge in forceful and violent activities.

As the radicals lose their capacity to dictate an agenda of war and terror, moderates and pragmatists rise in influence. They help pave the way towards an historic settlement.

It might be fashionable for radicals and peaceniks everywhere to call Bush a madman for resorting to assertive military action in the war against terror. But if peace is finally won in Palestine, it will in large part be a by-product precisely of the use of assertive American military might against rouge states sponsoring terror.

Hereabouts, it has become fashionable as well to speak of a "roadmap" for peace in Mindanao. But it seems the vital ingredients of trust and mechanisms of accountability are not yet present.

Specifically, a nebulous movement such as the MILF has been coy about denouncing terrorist actions and renouncing its links to terrorist networks. Even if it does, the capacity of the MILF leadership to deliver on its commitment is doubtful as well. Through the years, we have seen so many "lost commands" invoking the name of the MILF but operating well beyond the ability of the movement’s leadership structure to command and control.

The deadline set by President Gloria is due in a few days. The MILF must at least make the gesture of renouncing ties to terror. It must follow up with credible action to rein in its own violent factions.

If the MILF fails to do that, then assertive military action might have to be allowed to take its course.

We see from the journey to a political settlement in Palestine that talking peace and making war are not mutually exclusive options. The willingness to use assertive military action by the forces of decency and democracy has helped pave the way to an elusive peace.

Peace has become possible in Palestine because the radicals have been debilitated.