A nation run like hell

Next time GI Joe ventures into a sovereign state, he should first find out how much the locals want him. From what we’ve seen so far, coalition forces grossly miscalculated or were misinformed about the extent of welcome they would get from the Iraqis they would be "liberating" from the oppressive regime of Saddam Hussein.

Supporters of the war are still hoping that once Iraqis are sure that Saddam and his two murderous sons as well as their equally ruthless Republican Guards and Fedayeen militia are really gone, the world will finally see cheering by the "liberated" in the streets of Iraq.

I’ve started seeing some cheering in the streets of Basra, Iraq’s second largest city, but they seemed to be mere expressions of delight over relief goods. Also, the cheering is overshadowed by reports of Iraqis in coalition-controlled areas still worried that the Fedayeen, Saddam’s "Men of Sacrifice," would come after them as soon as the "liberators" pack up and leave.

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If you read in-depth articles by the Western press that came out before the war, you will be surprised to realize that events are unfolding almost exactly as projected by war planners in Washington.

The "shock and awe" strategy is discussed in detail – the use of overwhelming force in the first days of the war to persuade Saddam’s troops that resistance is futile. The planners even predicted the roadblocks that could make the "shock and awe" campaign fail (such as scrimping on the firepower), and noted that coalition forces may have to lay siege to Baghdad to minimize a bloodbath in ousting Saddam.

US President George W. Bush made it clear from the start that the war would claim civilian casualties. And he didn’t promise to take out Saddam in a day or even a week.

The first Gulf War in 1991 killed around 3,500 Iraqi civilians, according to human rights groups. It lasted all of 43 days: 38 involving air bombardment followed by a five-day ground offensive, which ended with the surrender of thousands of Iraqi troops.

Compare this with World War II, which lasted 45 months; the Korean War, 37 months; and the Vietnam War, a grueling 140 months.

The Americans, however, gave the impression that because of advances in defense technology since 1991, Gulf War II would be considerably shorter and less painful than the first one.

And now the war is entering its third week, due mainly to opposition or lack of cooperation from the Iraqis.

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A century ago Filipinos were similarly opposed to the American presence here, as soon as it became clear that they intended to take over from the Spaniards and occupy our land. You have to hand it to the Americans though; they can kill you with kindness. They quelled opposition and neutralized the guerrilla movement by bringing health care and education even to rural areas. They built roads and bridges and ports. Unlike the Spaniards, who thought Filipinos were too stupid to learn the Spanish language, the Americans happily taught English to anyone who cared to learn. Filipinas started wearing bloomers and learned to engage in sports.

With the American teachers and Protestants came the businessmen, who controlled the sugar industry and exploited our natural resources, but also brought electricity, tap water, cars, planes, trains and telephones. Then someone brought Hollywood movies and we were hooked.

And yet Filipinos never stopped yearning for self-rule. One nationalist famously said it is better to have a country run like hell by Filipinos, than one run like heaven by Americans. We like to say that it’s still being run like hell, unfortunately, but that’s beside the point.

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Now we get the impression that Iraqis also prefer hell to Uncle Sam. As I’ve written, people in Iraq have no experience in American-style democracy. Is it Washington’s business to tell the Iraqis what’s good for them? Also, is it worth the risk of further inflaming anti-US passions in the Arab Street?

Supporters of the war argue that even without Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Arab Street was already inflamed enough to breed Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. The Bush administration is hoping that a democratic Iraq could serve as an inspiration for people in the region yearning to be free of the heavy boot of the sheiks and mullahs. Washington hopes that this in turn could weaken the terrorist infrastructure that supports the Islamists and poses such a grave threat to the free world.

This is assuming that the Iraqis want democracy. So far the signs aren’t encouraging.

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WA NATION: My sources corrected me – North Korea does not manufacture methamphetamine hydrochloride or shabu. Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s batty leader who test-fired a surface-to-ship missile yesterday morning, reportedly buys shabu from Myanmar’s Wa tribe in the Golden Triangle, then resells the drugs to Asian markets. The Wa has been linked to methamphetamine trafficking rings of the Hong Kong triads and is believed to be expanding its drug trade with Thailand, China and India.

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SARS ALERT: A friend in China whose e-mail to me never goes beyond three sentences sent me a plaintive missive two paragraphs long the other day, lamenting the collapse of his travel business this year. What’s wrong with us journalists, he demanded to know; why are we writing that there’s mystery flu in China? They’ve had only a couple of cases, he wrote, and the Chinese aren’t worried so why should we be? Travelers from the Philippines and neighboring countries have cancelled trips to China, he said, thanks to our sensationalism.

I was sorry to inform him that Filipinos are canceling trips even to North America (yesterday Australia was added to the list) and even local trips that require boarding a plane. It hasn’t helped that the World Health Organization has reported that the severe acute respiratory syndrome or SARS virus is more infectious than the Ebola strain.

Thailand’s tourism bureau faxed me a statement yesterday, asking if we could emphasize that their country remains free of SARS. Good for you, Thailand!

I don’t know what sort of damage control our poor tourism chief Dick Gordon is attempting, but the short-term fallout from this global SARS alert has to be worse than from 9/11 and the Abu Sayyaf kidnappings combined. And it had to strike at the worst time for us – summer vacation.