If US economy picks up mid-2002, ours will, too

New York – Some members of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s delegation had thought on the flight here that it might not be a good time to visit. Not so soon after the Sept. 11 attack. Not three days after jumbo jet crashed in this city’s residential district. Not when every block in the huge commercial section has a desperate sign proclaiming "clearing-out sale." A staggering 79,000 jobs had evaporated from New York within six weeks of the World Trade Center disaster, and experts expect another 36,000 to disappear by yearend. The prospects certainly didn’t bode well for an Asian leader who’s competing with dozens of others the world over to attract America’s big businesses to come and lay their bets on her country.

Those doubts melted, though, when the Cabinet secretaries began their series of investment forums Thursday. They were even pleasantly surprised to learn that the hard-nosed businessmen have been following up on Philippine economic developments after all, and aren’t as pessimistic as their press pictures them to be. Particularly elating was the forum on energy prospects. Not one of the 85 inquirers about Napocor’s privatization asked about the kidnappings that have triggered advisories in the US and Japan against travelling to the Philippines. They were more concerned about consistency and continuity in economic policies. "There was palpable interest in investments," Presidential Spokesman Rigoberto Tiglao said, as Energy Secretary Vincent Perez rattled off the number of prospectors who were interested not just in Napocor’s risk-free transmission parcel but also in its hydroelectric and coal plants. In the forum on infotechnology and telecommunications, other businessmen made Finance Secretary Jose Isidro Camacho smile from ear to ear by saying they’re sure the Philippines will post the best performance among Southeast Asian economies this year, despite its 15-percent drop in exports. They’ve heard about the independent forecasts of 3-percent GDP versus the government target of 3.5 percent. Singapore and Malaysia, whose exports have dropped even worse than the Philippines,’ would both be lucky to pose one-half percent each. "That would make you next only to China in GDP," Camacho quoted Maurice Greenberg, American Insurance Group CEO, as saying. "Your only problem is that you’re not announcing it enough."

New York’s industrialist and bankers are bullish about their own economy. Experts have agreed that they’re in recession, but that they’d also pick up by mid-2002. Although the only slack in the spectacular US growth of ten consecutive years could last till June, the businessmen say they expect to notch three percent growth in the second half of next year. By US standards, that is big. "And we will be pulled up with it, too," Bangko Sentral Governor Rafael Buenaventura said.

A signing of three memoranda of understanding between US and Philippine infotech and telecoms enterprises capped the investment forums. The deal is to set up more call centers in Luzon to handle America’s ever-growing services market, a prospect that could immediately add 2,000 to 5,000 new jobs. That may be small compared to the 4.5 million unemployed. But the New York MOUs are expected to catch fire in California as well, where more companies are in need of Philippine-based English-speaking telemarketers and phone repliers to product or service queries.

The only sour note in the investors forums pertained to questions about Philippine garments supposedly not meeting US trade policies on environment safety and labor protection. The New Yorkers who attended the garments meeting must have mistaken the Philippines for China, which uses cheap prison labor to manufacture famous US brands subcontracted to it. Then again, maybe they did not mistake the Philippines for any other country after all, and not for environment or labor reasons. Maybe their own garment and textile makers simply can’t compete with low-priced Philippine garment output (10 percent of total yearly exports). That’s why, after asking the US government for some sort of protection despite the ongoing World Trade Organization conference in Qatar against subsidies, they’re yakking about this and that supposed wrong in Philippine garments, if only to needle the visiting delegation. But Trade and Industry Secretary Manuel Roxas II was unfazed. "They asked us to comply with their policies," he said knowingly about the unfounded complaints, "so we will comply as we have always complied out of respect for our trade partners."

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I wonder what Senator Edgardo Angara and his legal aide Demaree Raval are beefing about (Feedback, 16 Nov. 2001). That piece I wrote about Bulacan reporter Art Sampana (Gotcha, 12 Nov. 2001) was a straight report, not a commentary. It was based on three affidavits, duly signed and notarized. Sampana alleged that Angara, Raval and Senator Panfilo Lacson, through colleague Robert Rivero, induced him with big money last August to execute false sworn statements against Senator Arroyo and Col. Vic Corpus.

Angara is crying that I should have verified it from him. He can draft, sign, swear by and notarize an affidavit and I’ll report on it too. After all, Sampana has still another affidavit, the one he executed to complain to the Integrated Bar of the Philippines about Angara and Raval’s inducement to commit perjury. Angara needs to formally reply to that disbarment suit with an affidavit.

Raval is claiming he did all the talking and meeting with Sampana last August, not Angara. Now he feels double-crossed by his former witness against Angara’s political foes. Now, that Sampana is hitting at him and his boss, he calls it a "demolition job." His grandmother must have taught him that Filipino saying, although he probably wasn’t listening: "Huwag maglaro ng apoy, at baka masunog."