The shaky world of GMA: Captive of her cordon sanitaire? - HERE'S THE SCORE by Teodoro C. Benigno

She’s all smiles these days, almost radiant, striding across the marbled floors of Malacañang as though she owned the place, confident as though guided by the stars, and the mariner’s compass. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has wedged herself into the president’s job with dogged determination, seeking to be all things to all people. She believes she now has the balance of power to get on. We’ll see. From where I stand, everything does not look all right. The big thieves are still around. Joseph Estrada’s gorillas stalk the bushes nearby and Eduardo (Danding) Cojuangco is inside her political loop. So, can you trust the lady? GMA has problems galore. And these arise, from the very obvious fact that her leadership has no ideological direction.

Right off the bat, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) led by chairman Alfredo Benipayo smells like left-over bratwurst from Oberramergau. It’s not a post-EDSA II Comelec. It’s a Comelec with the footprints and fingerprints of Joseph Estrada all over the place. This Luzviminda Tangcanco has Pearl Harbor written all over her. And she’s mean. Benipayo is a cuckoo bird tweaking the air every hour. His main aim in life is to prevent about four million youths from voting in the May elections. This hombre is dangerous.

Egmidio (Ding) Tanjuatco would have been an excellent choice for the Comelec chair. Honest, upright, deeply steeped in the lore of elections and its treacherous byways, Tanjuatco was sharply rebuked and vetoed by GMA. Firstly, Ding was a close relative of Peping Cojuangco. The president also succumbed to a formidable power bloc in Malacañang, a bloc that goes back to the voodoo days of General Jose Almonte. This is the bloc of Tony Carpio, Pancho Villaraza and Nonong Cruz. This is the Trio Los Mataderos of the law office bearing their names which piled up a huge fortune during the reign of FVR. People keep talking about Villaraza’s fabulous mansion in a seaside suburb. Their boy was Benipayo.

Guess who’s their political godfather? Mike Arroyo, of course, the First Gentleman. But that’s neither here nor there. The three, on their own, have the ear of La Gloria Dulcissima, which is all right if they are known for patriotism, love of country, values and character. Theirs, however, is a penchant for power and lucre. I told GMA they were unsuited for Palace occupancy. GMA, of course ignored my advice. Already, the three have nailed down several choice appointments for their protégés, including the office of the solicitor general.

We do not really know if Malacañang chief of staff and spokesman, Rene Corona, belongs to the Sigma Rho trio of Carpio, Villaraza and Cruz, but he could very well be because they are hand-me-downs from the palmy days of Fidel Valdez Ramos. Watch the Sigma Rho brethren. They are all over the place, UP fraternity brothers all, who do not give a hoot if neophytes writhe, keel over and die in their brutal hazing rites. They are no different from the Aquila Legis of Ateneo, a law fraternity, about 20 of whose members snuffed out the life of Lenny Villa in the early 90s.

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There’s another power bloc in the Palace, probably the most redoubtable. That’s the bloc headed by presidential executive secretary Renato de Villa and Presidential Management Staff head Vicky Garchitorena. Between the two of them sprawls a huge power latifundia manned on the one hand by the Armed Forces of the Philippines and on the other by the Makati Business Club. You see? Until now, we have not yet spotted stalwarts from People Power II, despite all the lip service GMA has paid to the multitudes who made of the EDSA Shrine a spiritual mushroom cloud that staggered an unbelieving world. She had promised Copa (Council of Philippine Affairs) a number of top-level cabinet posts, but she has not come through. Copa was right in the middle of People Power II. I never saw members of her cordon sanitaire participate in street demonstrations.

For all I know, she might have been sincere, meant well. But she fell captive to her cordon sanitaire which dislikes Copa intensely.

Small wonder. People Power II is just a curl of vanishing smoke in the far distance. For President Arroyo, pride of place and position goes to the generals, active and retired. Top favorite is AFP chief of staff Gen. Angelo Reyes who is due to retire and reportedly is being groomed to take over as secretary of defense. We wouldn’t have minded General Reyes at all except that like GMA who had politically gone to bed with Estrada, the general turned out to be a koochy-koochy-koo kumpadre of the former president. He deserted Erap with great sadness and reluctance only because everybody else had abandoned Erap.

General Reyes will take over the DND portfolio? C’mon.

If Rear Admiral Guillermo Wong is right – and I believe he is – there’s a lot of hanky-panky in the military establishment, graft and corruption being committed by top officers. General Reyes fired Wong, told him to shut up. And there – gents and mesdames – is the rub. Executive Secretary Renato de Villa, the general emeritus who brought Reyes and the top brass to EDSA, has too remained silent on the scandal which has rocked the military to its boots. No investigation at all. What we badly and urgently need to head the DND is a civilian, not a high priest of the Mistah Cult. Among the names we have in mind is Raffy Alunan, one of the last of vanishing breed who, for God and country, will lay his life on the line.

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GMA needs the generals to secure her position until the 2004 elections when this time she runs for the presidency. And does not just inherit it. She also needs big business to get back into, yes, business and get its wheels rolling again. Between the military and business, she feels she can take care of the streets if these should spit thunder again and rail at her administration. The thunder can largely come from the left, but this time she has made sure it will not come from the right. The generals, of course.

But even as we beat the drums on what we figure to be une fois encore (one more time) and déjà vu in Malacañang, three events loom over GMA like grim shadows on the move. And depending on how these three events evolve over time, President Arroyo will rise or fall, sink or swim, end up a shipwreck or reach shore. The first is the forthcoming trial of Joseph Estrada. Top police officials assure me he will be arrested once they get the signal from the Sandiganbayan. In two or three weeks’ time? Erap will be handcuffed, imprisoned and arraigned together with about six to eight of his co-accused. This could include Loi Ejercito.

If everything goes well, and GMA rides the cavalry charge against Estrada, this will implant a rich lodestone into the current political campaign.

The prosecution is confident it has a prima facie case against Joseph Estrada for plunder and other crimes. They are out to prove that Estrada is a congenital liar, that he is not innocent at all, that he has stolen billions with the audacity of Al Capone. The pro-Estrada poor, of course, will be shocked and dismayed. But the law must take its course. And if the law wrenches Estrada from his pedestal with evidence that is not only irrefutable but overwhelming, this will land like a bomb on the electoral campaign. A gambler, a wencher, a tippler the pro-Estrada poor can accept, including all his wives and mistresses, but a despicable criminal they possibly cannot.

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However if GMA does not ride the cavalry charge, allows the trial to drag on and on and on and rides the fence, she is in trouble. And worse if Erap Estrada manages to escape and flee the country, she can count herself hammered by Joe Louis, the Brown Bomber of yore.

The second event will, of course, be the result of the elections. If the People Power Coalition (PPC) gets a tally of 12-1 or 10-2 (13-0 is just impossible), then GMA is on solid ground. She would have a bedrock and every opportunity to gun good legislation out of Congress (if she has a mind to) and open the gunwales for the 2004 presidential elections. If her leadership really gets to be effective, with brass knuckles to fight crime and reduce graft, she can write out her ticket.

If the senatorial elections should explode in her face, and Estrada’s Puwersa ng Masa should gain the upper hand or come very close, 7-6, then she skates on thin ice. And she would have missed the brass handle for a grand entrée into 2004. This will open the door for Raul Roco and Loren Legarda, who can smash political steel gates wide open with their immense popularity.

There’s a third factor – the economic situation. The world economy has the shakes. The US and Japan, the Philippines’ two main export markets and the world’s two biggest economies, are on the stock market slump. Thirty percent of Philippine exports go to the US, 60 percent of the total in electronic products. These could sharply diminish. If Japan’s economy continues to flounder, Japanese investments in and financial assistance to the Philippines will start drying up. In a worst scenario, the Philippine economy can slam into a recession in a period of six months.

From the frying pan into the fire. People Power III?