Change in Taiwan

Since winning election more than a week ago as Taiwan's first pro-independence president, Chen Shui-bian has reached out to the island's giant neighbor across the Taiwan Strait. He proposed to go to Beijing on a mission of peace, and urged China's top officials to visit Taipei. Both overtures were rejected by Beijing, which wants an assurance from Chen that he recognizes the one-China policy.

All his life Chen, a native-born Taiwanese, has been advocating independence from China. But after winning by a narrow margin, he has tried to tone down pro-independence rhetoric to appease the old guards in Taiwan who still hope for reconciliation with China. Chen, however, has refused to budge from his "one-China, two interpretations" policy, agreed upon by the two rivals at their dialogue in 1993. Under this principle, China considers itself the one referred to in the one-China policy, with Taiwan as its re-negade province. Taiwan, on the other hand, can consider itself the one alluded to. This interpretation no longer sits well with Beijing, especially after Chen's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party ended the Kuomintang's 50-year rule in Taiwan.

Moving to calm jitters, Chen has approved direct trade, transport and postal links between Taiwan's frontline islands and China. His party forged a consensus with the Kuomintang, which continues to dominate parliament, to dissolve the 334-seat National Assembly. The dramatic changes have forced outgoing President Lee Teng-hui to resign as Kuomintang chairman in an effort to revitalize the party. Chen has announced he would not declare Taiwan's independence nor call for a plebiscite on the incendiary issue.

Beijing appears to have been mollified -- at least it did not invade Taiwan as it had threatened to do if Chen won the election and there was internal chaos. But unrest continues in Taiwan, part of it stirred by the man Chen narrowly defeated, independent candidate James Soong.

Having won on a platform of independence, Chen can't afford to abandon his views and alienate his supporters. But neither can Taiwan afford a direct confrontation with China. The Philippines and the rest of the region, which will be affected by conflict in the Taiwan Strait, are watching closely as Chen walks a tightrope.