Pagasa: Don’t look at us

The weather bureau, the Philippine National Police (PNP), the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and even Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita were caught flat-footed by the postponement of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asian summits in Cebu City.

But an official of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), who requested anonymity, said the weather bureau did recommend the postponement of the summit.

The official said as of yesterday, "Seniang’s" path did not indicate that it would directly hit Cebu.

Pagasa weather forecaster Prisco Nilo said Seniang does not pose a threat to the summit.

Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita himself said he was clueless about the postponement.

"Ha! Bakit meron ba? (Why, is there a postponement?) I don’t know, I’ve been here since 3 o’clock: I was out of my office since about

2:30 p.m. Bakit meron ba, I’m sorry but wala akong alam. (I don’t know anything). I cannot make a comment on something I have no knowledge of," Ermita told reporters at the Philippine Navy headquarters.

He reiterated there were no terror threats in the ASEAN summit but admitted that the threat of terrorism would always exist.

"That’s why our forces are always ready but definitely I do not know whether there is indeed a postponement of the summit, but definitely that’s not a reason," Ermita said.

Ermita presided over the turn-over of command between outgoing Navy chief, Vice Admiral Mateo Mayuga and

Rear Admiral Rogelio Calunsag at the Navy headquarters yesterday.

Ermita immediately instructed his aides to verify the postponement report and said he didn’t know why the summit is being cancelled.

The government on Friday postponed next week’s summit because of the brewing typhoon Seniang

Even Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Hermogenes Esperon was surprised at the postponement.

Esperon said he was not consulted by the ASEAN summit event organizers in postponing the summit.

"I have not seen any official announcement on the cancellation," he said, adding that if the summit was indeed cancelled, the AFP will maintain its security arrangements with the police in Cebu.

"We will enforce the same (security) arrangement unless we find some other developments that we have to adjust to," Esperon said.

The organizers cited typhoon Seniang as primary reason for the summit’s postponement but several sources said the incoming typhoon was merely used as an excuse by people behind the event’s cancellation.

"It’s just the RP’s way of avoiding political embarrassment that while the ASEAN summit is on going in the country, the other parts of the country are embroiled in massive street protests against the con-ass, (constitutional assembly)," claimed a senior security analyst who refused to be identified.

The US, British and Australian embassies earlier issued travel warnings against visiting Cebu, citing credible terror threats to the ASEAN summit.

Even Pagasa was surprised by the postponement and officials had a closed-door meeting last night to discuss the summit’s postponement Nilo said Seniang will still hit Cebu but will not cause the damage wrought earlier by supertyphoon Reming in the Bicol region. Reming’s wrath resulted in the deaths of more than a thousand people in Albay.

 "Maapektuhan pa rin yung Cebu City pero hindi masyadong malala dahil itong bagyong ito ay mabilis ang takbo. (Cebu will be affected but not that badly because the typhoon will blow over quickly.) I don’t think the summit is going to be affected by Seniang because it is not that strong.  Seniang is moving very fast and that’s why it is not that strong," Nilo told ANC last night.

 Unlike typhoon Reming, which packed winds of 195 kilometers per hour, Nilo said Seniang is only packing winds of 95 kilometers per hour and is most likely to cause only moderate damage to properties.

 "Kapag ganun ‘yung lakas ng hangin, ang damage niyan is moderate damage to agriculture. Small trees may be uprooted and houses made of light materials may be partially damaged," Nilo said in an ANC interview.

In an interview earlier in the day, Nathaniel Cruz, Pagasa’s weather bureau chief, said if a high pressure area in the South China Sea will again push the storm downward, as in the case of super typhoon Reming, Seniang might directly hit central Cebu , where the summit would be held.

 "But based from its present speed and direction it will not directly hit central Cebu," Cruz said.

But he also said typhoon Seniang’s track could still change so the public should not be complacent.

Cruz said in an interview over Channel 7 that there could be changes in the track of typhoon Seniang and affect areas not expected to be hit. He said this already happened in the case of typhoon Reming, which Pagasa expected to hit Metro Manila but it veered and hit the Bicol region.

Tropical depression Seniang intensified into a storm yesterday and was likely to hit Cebu.

Meanwhile, Science and Technology Secretary Estrella Alabastro said they continue to provide the latest weather updates to the Asean National Organizing Committee since the storm entered the Philippine area of responsibility Thursday afternoon.

In its latest bulletin, Pagasa said Seniang was spotted 350 kms east southeast of Guiuan, eastern Samar, packing winds of 95 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 120 kph. It was moving west at 24 kph.

Storm Warning Signal no. 2 was hoisted over Samar provinces, Leyte provinces, and in the islands of Biliran, Dinagat and Siargao ; while signal no.1 was up in Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Romblon, Burias Island, Bohol, Cebu, Negros provinces, Guimaras Island, Iloilo, Capiz, Antique, Aklan, and Siquijor Island. 

Seniang is expected to make a land over southern Samar this noon;  and will be in the vicinity of Tacloban City this afternoon; by Sunday afternoon at 70 kms southeast of Coron, Palawan; and 520 kms west of Coron, Palawan by Monday afternoon.

Pagasa warned residents in areas under public storm warning signals against possible flashfloods and landslides. Pagasa also advised fishing boats and other small sea vessels not to venture into the sea because of moderate to high waves associated with the strong northeasterly winds.

Alabastro warned people of Albay especially those who are living near the Mayon volcano to be vigilant against possible mudslides that could be brought about by Seniang even if it will not directly pass the area. – With Helen Flores