Frontrunners to get next year’s Oscar nods
MANILA, Philippines — Oscar season is upon us again. The movies competing for glory this year are a lot less buzzy than last year, but that doesn’t stop us from weighing in and predicting what movies and performances are destined for the ultimate recognition in cinema come March next year.
If the Oscars were held today, Paul Thomas Anderson’s (PTA) explosive film “One Battle After Another” (OBAA) starring Leonardo di Caprio, as an anarchist in his previous life hunted by an obsessive military man in the present, would be considered the frontrunner to win the major awards, including above-the-line acting categories for Leo, Sean Penn and Teyana Taylor, who practically owns the first act of the film. There is also a long-overdue-for-an-Oscar narrative working in favor of PTA.
However, if this writer has a sway among Oscar voters, and they read this article, I will likely make them reconsider and vote for Chloe Zhao’s masterpiece “Hamnet.” Ms. Zhao previously swept the Oscar for “Nomadland” during the pandemic.
In the film, she crafts a devastating film about loss and grief based on a popular bestseller that imagines what could have motivated William Shakespeare to write his greatest play, “Hamlet.”
The movie features powerful performances from Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal. Jessie will win the Oscar for Best Actress come March. Her main competition in the Best Actress race are Rose Byrne for “If I had Legs, I’d Kick You” and Jennifer Lawrence for “Die My Love.”
Interestingly, all three characters are about mothers dealing with the difficulties and challenges of motherhood.
Mescal could earn his second Oscar nomination for his role as William Shakespeare in the film. He is being campaigned for Best Supporting Actor despite being a lead in the film. “Hamnet” won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival this year, normally a harbinger of Oscar success.
The third movie in the race is the revisionist horror film “Sinners” from Black Panther director Ryan Coogler. The film imagines racism in America as an element of supernatural horror. It is a surprise summer hit and could potentially win Best Picture and Best Director. Michael B. Jordan is expected to earn a Best Actor nomination for his lead performance.
Last year, “Wicked: Part One” surprised everyone with multiple Oscar nominations. Jon Chu, the film’s director, was the only major omission. This year, the sequel “Wicked: For Good” is expected to duplicate the success of the first film with historic back-to-back nominations for lead stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
Erivo returns as Elphaba, while Grande reprises her role as Glinda. Both are shoo-ins for repeat nominations, with Ariana currently the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress.
In fifth is Guillermo Del Toro’s gorgeous adaptation of Mary Shelley’s “Frankenstein.” The film has received universal acclaim since its debut at Venice, with the performances of Jacob Elordi as the titular monster and Mia Goth being singled out for potential nominations. It is expected to dominate the nominations in the technical categories for its sumptuous design and exquisite cinematography.
The Swedish film from Joaquim Trier, “Sentimental Value,” which won the Jury Prize at Cannes, is also expected to be nominated for Best Picture and Best Director with potential acting nominations for stars Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgaard. The duo plays estranged daughter and father in the film that explores family trauma, healing and reconciliation.
Other titles in the race for Best Picture are:
“The Testament of Ann Lee.” The film is based on the life of Ann Lee who founded the Shakers religious movement in the 18th century. The film is directed by Mona Fastvold. She co-wrote last year’s Oscar-nominated film “The Brutalist.” Amanda Seyfried plays the titular role, and she is tipped for a possible Best Actress bid.
“Marty Supreme,” the new Timothee Chalamet film from acclaimed filmmaker Josh Safdie, is an offbeat biopic about an American table tennis player who dreams of becoming a world champion in the sport. Timothee is the frontrunner for Best Actor as the titular Marty. His main competition is Leo from “OBAA” and the great Brazilian actor Wagner Moura, who won the Best Actor prize at Cannes for “The Secret Agent.”
“F1,” the Brad Pitt summer blockbuster, is also in the mix for a potential Best Picture nomination.
James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” has yet to start screening for the press, but the film is expected to get a Best Picture nomination and multiple technical nods given how the previous two films performed with the Academy.
Considered a long shot but also in the conversation is the latest film from Oscar winner Kathryn Bigelow. The suspenseful and explosive “The House of Dynamite” has divided critics and audiences with its non-traditional narrative structure and quiet ending. But if the movie earns nominations from early critics’ awards, it could sway more Oscar voters to watch it and reconsider.
Three international films are also in the mix for breakthrough nods. South Korea’s “No Other Choice” from Park Chan-wook, Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” from Kleber Mendonca Filho and this year Cannes Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” from Iranian master Jafar Panahi, are also tipped to earn the coveted Best Picture and Best Director nominations.
The three films above, together with the Swedish submission “Sentimental Value” and the powerful Tunisian submission about a Palestine girl “The Voice of Hind Rajab” are the frontrunners for Best International Film.
Other films that are potential spoilers are “Bugonia” from Yorgos Lanthimos with acclaimed performances from Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons, “Jay Kelly” from Noah Baumbach starring Adam Sandler and George Clooney and “Train Dreams,” a small independent film featuring an acclaimed turn by Joel Edgerton.
Jennifer Lopez (“Kiss of the Spider-woman”), Julia Roberts (“After the Hunt”), Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (“The Smashing Machine”) and Daniel Day-Lewis (“Anemone”) are A-listers who may surprise with a nomination on Oscar morning as well.
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