Edson Guido, my favorite number-cruncher

If you’re a regular viewer or listener of DZMM Teleradyo, the name “Edson Guido” will be familiar to you. Edson is the head of ABS-CBN Data Analytics Team, and he crunches and analyzes the data that the Department of Health (DOH) releases every day for the average Filipino.

Just recently, SPOT.ph rightly named his account (@EdsonCGuido) as one of its “10 Twitter Accounts to Follow for COVID-19 updates.”

But who is the man behind all that math? Here’s the Q&A I recently had with my favorite number-cruncher, Edson Guido.

What is your educational background?

I’m a Ph.D. candidate at the UP School of Economics (UPSE). I also finished my undergraduate and master’s degree at UPSE. I’ve really loved numbers ever since I was a kid.

How did your career begin in ABS-CBN and what are your responsibilities?

I worked at the World Bank prior to being the head of the ABS-CBN Data Analytics Team. In my previous role, I was responsible for processing and analyzing all relevant datasets in the publication of official reports. However, I felt I would be able to better serve the country with my skills through the platform ABS-CBN offered and so I made what many called a career-switch.

Currently, my primary role is to make sense of the numbers, translate them into stories and provide deeper insights into what is happening around us. I parse through the data found in various government websites and alert the news team about findings I discover and make these more digestible for our viewers.

ABS-CBN was the first in the country to have a dedicated analytics team in the broadcast industry. Before this, there was no other attempt to consistently produce data-centered reports in Philippine television.

In this era when there is a cornucopia of information, processing is more important than ever. Perhaps it’s my non-journalism background but I found it crucial to establish methods and present findings in ways that can be verified, replicated, and precise. While getting the opinions of experts is important, I focus on producing exclusive stories anchored on facts.

The unprecedentedness of the team was what made it most challenging. I had no template to follow, at least in the country. We stumbled in the first few weeks and months as we attempted to perfect our production process while observing what our audience responded to best.  The result was, thankfully, a breakthrough innovation using cutting edge technology such as augmented reality, touch-screen, LED walls, interactive dashboards and specially designed graphics to create data-driven stories.

In October 2019, the team was awarded by the Philippine Statistics Authority for Best Statistical Reporting in TV Broadcast Media. In the same month, the team also won the Lopez Achievement Award for Customer Focus. It was a proud moment for me and my team that our hard work was recognized. We took it as a signal that we were doing things right.

Name some interesting facts about this pandemic that you discovered.

As much as I want to be proven wrong, I don’t see the curve bending in the coming weeks just yet. There were claims that the reason why cases were going up was because of testing. While it’s good to see that the number of tests has now consistently surpassed the government target of 30,000 per day, the positivity rate (positive individuals over the number of individuals tested) has also gone up. If more people are testing positive, outpacing the increase in tests, it could only mean that there are more infections and transmissions happening on the ground. To quote New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo: “More testing only uncovers more positives when there are positives to be found.” In New York, daily new cases have gone down even though daily testing has gone up.

The positivity rate in the Philippines is still on an upward trend. It is higher than 12 percent in recent weeks. The World Health Organization benchmark is five percent or lower for at least 14 days. This is an indicator that the spike in cases in the country cannot be attributed to testing alone.

I regularly post my findings on Twitter, which I sometimes do in Filipino, to reach a broader audience. My analyses have been picked up by other news outlets and even the vice president herself. I am thankful for how the social media platform has enabled me to interact with fellow Twitter users who are hungry for accurate information. It truly makes the data crunching worth it and I am happy to continue doing my job as long as others find it helpful.

What are the areas of improvement for the government, and what can citizens do to help bend the curve?

We need to test more. The fact that our positivity rate is still high implies that there are still a lot of positive cases around that go undetected. We need to identify those cases and isolate them immediately. Contact tracing should be improved. And our citizens should continue to observe minimum health standards. It’s really a huge sacrifice for everyone involved.

What is your fearless forecast for this pandemic?

I still don’t see signs of the curve bending but hopefully, the two-week MECQ imposed in Metro Manila will help. We’re now under GCQ so it will be challenging. But I’m praying that we flatten the curve before the year ends.