How reliable are voter surveys?

As we go deeper into the 2013 election cycle, voter surveys are again grabbing attention, sometimes disturbing or motivating candidates and their campaigners. The reliability of the polls varies depending on the methodology used and the respondents sampled during its conduct. But listening to political pundits, we can see that the analysis of the results are quite nuanced — offering different layers of insight into the minds of the voters (and if you really look closely, the inner thoughts of those running for office).

Take for example the recent Rock the Vote survey done by Cosmo Magazine. Compared with the other polls, particularly those by Pulse Asia or SWS, this was a rather modest exercise focusing on about 300 respondents, mostly women within the AB socio-economic class. The survey was done online and was published in the magazine’s April 2013 issue.

The results of the Cosmo survey show a strong preference for the administration bets, with Team PNoy candidate Sonny Angara placing first, with 33 percent of the votes. He was followed by two other Team PNoy candidates, Chiz Escudero (31 percent) and Risa Hontiveros (19 percent).

Completing the list were Teddy Casiño (six percent), Alan Peter Cayetano (five percent) and Loren Legarda and Jack Enrile both with three percent of the votes.

Looking at the results of the poll, several things jump out immediately — like the fact that there are only seven candidates on the list instead of 12, that it is by and large a relatively young line-up, and that lastly only three of the candidates running with the backing of their politically prominent fathers made it into the list.

With these, the first thing we can infer is that the Cosmo respondents were largely unimpressed with the people running for senator this 2013. Of the 33 candidates asking for their votes, they were only able to pick seven.

While this is obviously good news for those who made it to the list, it also offers a clear opportunity for those who aren’t because there are still five slots to be filled. For campaigners, this is where the importance of all those last minute sample ballots come in. Remember, they may be the only thing keeping your candidate from falling into the jaws of obscurity and defeat.

Another observation that we can see is that the Cosmo respondents had a preference for young, educated, and performance-oriented candidates. Taking Angara and Escudero as the selection standard among the respondents, we can see that this is the combination that worked for them.

Both of their training is very impressive. Angara comes from the London School of Economics, UP Law and Harvard Law, and Escudero was schooled in both UP and Georgetown Law. The two have been serious legislators with a consistent track record of being able to deliver the goods. For Angara, his excellent performance among the Cosmo respondents might also have been helped by his being the author of the law Magna Carta of Women.

Lastly, on the importance of political pedigree, we note that not everyone was able to transfer the impact of their parents’ popularity to their own — or at least not in this particular survey. Again, in the case of Angara it is the combination of his father’s legacy and his own body of political achievements that has allowed him to capture the imagination and interest of the voters.

Charity & celeb bazaar

Christine Babao holds a charity and celebrity bazaar called Lifestyle Summer Bazaar on May 23 to May 25 at the Filinvest Tent in Alabang. There are plenty of booths and a variety of merchandise to choose from. There will also be free entrepreneurial talks by Paulo Tibig and the Go Negosyo team. Kids will also enjoy Wanlu’s magic show for free. See your favorite celebrities up close and get to buy their stuff at the celebrity booth. Call 931-0852 to book a slot.