The ‘most likely’ Metrofest winner

The annual Metro Manila Film Festival kicked off yesterday and the great news is that it is one of those good years where there are lots of entries that are worth watching.

Half of the entries are must-sees, while the rest are puede pasar and only one is intolerable.

Like what I do year after year, I make a forecast of the winners days ahead and match it with the choices of the judges come awards night (on Dec. 29 at the Aliw Theater).

Below is my list of the "most likely" winners in this year’s Metro Filmfest:

Best Child Actor

• Nash Aguas (Shake, Rattle & Roll 8, Yaya episode) — Although he gets great support from Sheryl Cruz, Debraliz Valasote, TJ Trinidad, Boom Antonio and, of course, Iza Calzado (who plays his mother yaya), the boy carries the episode by himself and, in fact, should be put in the lead category, except that MMFF rules dictate that kid performers should compete under the Best Child Actor race. But he is a runaway winner in this category — and deservingly so if only for all that energy he pours into his role.

Best Supporting Actor

• Johnny Delgado (Ligalig) — It’s a very short role (as the father of Cesar Montano), but like any Johnny Delgado performance, it is memorable and this makes him a strong candidate for best supporting actor.

• John Regala (Ligalig) — As the shell shock victim brother of Sunshine Cruz, this 1994 Urian Best Supporting Actor (for Fatima Buen) gives a very intense performance and he is my actual bet for Best Supporting Actor.

• Ariel Ureta (Kasal, Kasali, Kasalo) — This former TV superstar only made two movies in the past (Zoom, Zoom Superman and Si Popeye Atbp.), but he played the title roles in these films that were both blockbuster hits. Thirty-three years later, he resumes his film acting career and we finally see what a sensitive performer he really is. Unfortunately, his role is a bit too short and less marked compared to the other people in his category. But I wouldn’t mind if he won Best Supporting Actor.

• Chokoleit (Zsa Zsa Zaturnnah) — If the judges want to have fun, this standup comic may just win Best Supporting Actor. He is actually in the entire film — with a bigger screen exposure than Rustom Padilla and Zsa Zsa Padilla. The trouble is, since he plays support, the director’s attention isn’t focused on him totally and he has lapses in some of his performances. And since he is on the screen all the time, the chance for him to err is bigger — unlike Johnny Delgado, John Regala and Ariel Ureta whose roles are shorter but are able to stay more focused on their respective characters.

Best Supporting Actress

• Gina Pareño (Kasal, Kasali, Kasalo) — During the awards season next year, she will be in the running for both lead and supporting actress — for Kubrador and this movie. Pareño is a delight to watch as the mother of Judy Ann Santos. She is so hilarious that you beg to see her even in scenes where she is not included. Her best moment is that part where she moves to a hotel because she feels unwelcome in the house of Judy Ann’s in-laws. Here, you see what a terrific actress she is — either in drama or in comedy.

• Celia Rodriguez (Ligalig) – It’s a Ma Barker-inspired role, but she is careful not to make a caricature out of it – a clear indication that she is, indeed, a very disciplined actress. As the gun-toting mother of Sunshine Cruz, you see her tough side most of the time, but in one scene where she mourns the death of a child, you see another facet of her and she is brilliant.

• Lorna Tolentino (Mano Po 5: Gua Ay Di) – It’s one of those borderline roles. This Mano Po edition is a love story that revolves around Richard Gutierrez and Angel Locsin, but it is the Yolanda Co character of Lorna (as Angel’s traditional Chinese mother) that holds everything together. Lorna is actually all over the film – to the delight of the viewers because she lights up every scene with her remarkable performance. Local moviegoers will be thrilled – and surprised – to see a different Lorna Tolentino here. In Mano Po 5, the drama queen goes comedy and succeeds tenfold. (I swear you will relish each one of her one-liners). The mark of a true versatile actress.

Best Actress

• Judy Ann Santos (Kasal, Kasali, Kasalo) – I’m betting all the material possessions I have in this life (that’s not really much) that Judy Ann will leave Aliw Theater on Friday with the best actress trophy – practically without contest. It’s not that she doesn’t have competition (because there’s a lot). But she is so good in her role as a young bride that it is impossible for anyone to beat her in this race.

Best Actor

• Ryan Agoncillo (Kasal, Kasali, Kasalo) – It would be a good photo-op to see Judy Ann and Ryan clutching acting trophies together – and that is a possibility, depending on the taste of the judges. If this happens, I wouldn’t mind it because this relatively new screen actor delivers a very decent performance in this movie. Of course, the field is tough. But if I have a Top 3, he is one of them.

• Cesar Montano (Ligalig) – He puts a lot of sensitivity into the role as a taxi driver who has a rather mysterious life. Cesar winning Best Actor (again) is very acceptable and much deserved – if ever. In Ligalig, he proves to all that he is our local version of Al Pacino – because that is how the Hollywood legend would have attacked the role if the Ligalig lead character were given to him.

• Rustom Padilla (Zsa Zsa Zaturnnah) – While Cesar Montano is deserving of the Best Actor prize, the judges may find it refreshing to give the award to Rustom Padilla, who has not won any acting prize in this career. If this happens, Rustom would be just as deserving. As the gay beauty parlor owner, he is excellent in all his scenes – whether it is comedy, drama or musical. Yes, I think he uses his own voice. But even if it is not a Gary Valenciano or Martin Nievera singing voice, you still appreciate it because he puts so much heart into it. I only wish people would not wisecrack about which category he should be put under (Best Actor, but of course!) because the way he tackles his gay part is politically correct and we should admire and respect him for that.

(On Thursday, my bet for Best Picture).