Targeted job support signals policy recalibration
From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves
Event
Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) plans targeted job support, reskilling, and infra-linked employment after 2025 job creation slowed sharply. Unemployment rose to 4.4% in Dec-25 (average of 4.2% in FY25) while construction and agriculture shed workers, reflecting project delays and weather disruptions affecting labor stability.
View
We think the pivot acknowledges labor market fragility despite headline resilience. Services continue to cushion employment, but weak capex and stalled infra weighed on hiring. In our view, targeted programs aim to stabilize consumption by preventing deeper income volatility among displaced workers.
Catalyst
Key catalysts include infra catch-up spending and skills programs tied to climate-resilient sectors. If construction restarts accelerate, employment could normalize by late 2026. Risks include prolonged project delays and weaker investor sentiment.
Action
We favor consumption and services-linked stocks benefiting from employment stabilization. We believe improved labor programs help sustain domestic demand expectations, though cyclical sectors tied to public capex remain dependent on execution visibility.
Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.
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