Digital payments hit inflection point after 2025 surge
From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves
Event
In our view, the jump in InstaPay and PESONet transactions to P24.7tn in 2025, +42% value surge and a +217% volume spike, confirms that digital payments are entering scale territory. InstaPay alone grew 57% by value, reflecting stronger daily usage.
View
We think this shift reduces cash handling frictions and improves liquidity, supporting consumption and SME activity. A 10pp rise in digital penetration historically correlates with a 0.1-0.2pp uplift in household spending. We also think that high-frequency payments data may serve as a reliable proxy for near-term demand trends.
Catalyst
The BSP’s goal of digitalizing 60-70% of retail payments by 2028 depends on fee reductions and tighter anti-fraud controls. Our sensitivity shows that cutting transfer costs by 20-30% could lift usage volumes by an additional 15-20% annually, which could offset the revenue impact for banks and e-payment.
Action
In our view, the sustained shift benefits fee-light, volume-heavy models. Banks gain from higher float balances, while digibanks accelerate customer acquisition. We see continued upside for players with strong mobile ecosystems and API-ready payments infrastructure.
Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.
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