Philippines among Asia’s trade growth leaders until 2029 – report

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is among the countries in Asia that is expected to lead trade growth until 2029, according to a report from logistics leader DHL and the New York University (NYU) Stern School of Business.

The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report, which looks at trends in global trade, showed that four countries in Asia – the Philippines, India, Vietnam and Indonesia – are forecast to rank among the top 30 countries in terms of both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth between 2024 and 2029.

Steven Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management said in a webinar that the Philippines, in particular, is expected to post a 7.4-percent growth and an $88-billion increase in trade volume.

He said the trade volume growth forecast is at 7.2 percent for India, 6.7 percent for Indonesia and 6.5 percent for Vietnam.

In terms of absolute volume increases, the forecast is at $484 billion for India, $272 billion for Vietnam and $195 billion for Indonesia.

While the Philippines ranked 129th on the speed dimension over the 2019 to 2024 period, the report showed that the Philippines is expected to rank 15th over the period of 2024 to 2029.

On the scale dimension, the Philippines is forecast to rise from 68th place to 30th.

While the Philippines’ manufacturing sector, which is focused on electronics, has seen limited benefits from supply chain diversification, the report said it is poised for substantial acceleration in trade growth.

Altman said there is no specific catalyst for the trade growth acceleration for the Philippines, but its untapped potential offers promise.

With the country’s trade volume growth rate at only 0.5 percent in the past five years, he said base effects will also come into play.

“So there’s quite a lot of room for acceleration to take place in the Philippines. And so we’re hopeful that forecast will be realized in the coming five years,” he said.

DHL Asia-Pacific CEO Ken Lee said in the same event that the country’s political situation is unlikely to impact its trade growth.

Earlier this week, former president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested for crimes against humanity.

“If the people in the Philippines need to trade, to expand beyond the Philippines, it would. I mean if people in the Philippines would like to source shipments from outside the Philippines, they would, regardless of what the political situation is,” Lee said.

He said the Philippines has been identified as one of the countries where DHL intends to double down its engagement, given its significant trade growth potential.

To realize the trade growth potential in the Philippines, as well as in India, Vietnam and Indonesia, the report cited the need for investments in physical infrastructure and supportive policy measures.

“While these countries all have especially favorable trade growth prospects, they have also faced infrastructure and other capacity-related constraints in the past,” the report said.