Earthquake in Metro Manila

Last Feb. 25, some 80 participants gathered at the Tower Club of Philamlife Tower in Makati for a half-day meeting to prepare for the Resilience Conference on Earthquakes scheduled for April 15 by the Carlos P. Romulo Foundation, the Zuellig Family Foundation and the Manila Observatory. The Earthquake Resilience conference will be the second in the series of events that the three convenors are organizing over the next three years to increase awareness of the risks the country faces from multiple natural hazards and from climate change, and to find concrete ways to build a climate and disaster-resilient society.

In his keynote presentation, Dr. Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, gave an update on the likely consequences of two earthquake scenarios hitting Metro Manila – a 7.2 and a 6.5 magnitude earthquake along the West Valley Fault.  The casualty estimates for a 7.2 magnitude earthquake are 31,000 deaths, 126,000 serious injuries and economic losses of P2.23 trillion.

A 6.5 magnitude earthquake may result in 23,000 deaths, 95,000 serious injuries and economic losses of P1.77 trillion. Metro Manila may also divide into four isolated sections due to fire and destroyed/damaged roads and bridges. An even scarier scenario is an 8.3 magnitude earthquake along the Manila Trench west of the country that could trigger tsunamis up to 5.5 meters and could inundate Metro Manila in a little more than an hour.

Dr. Solidum outlined a five-part priority strategic approach to contend with a strong earthquake, including: strengthening the legal framework and institutional capacity for disaster management; building capacity for relief and recovery; strengthening community preparedness; reducing seismic dangers of residential structures; and enhancing the national system to become resistant to the impact of earthquakes.

Four notable experts followed the keynote presentation of Dr. Solidum. Ms. Toni Yulo-Loyzaga, executive director of the Manila Observatory, emphasized the need to transform our view of natural hazards from a humanitarian to a development challenge and to build a society’s resilience by reducing its vulnerability and exposure to natural hazards. Of particular concern requiring focus is the four million plus informal settlers. 

Dr. Linton Wells II, founder of STAR-TIDES (Sharing to Accelerate Research-Transformative Innovation for Development and Emergency Support) shared his wealth of expertise and experience on collective approaches and coordinated strategies to strengthen earthquake resilience in Metro Manila, especially where there is no unity of command and control to cope with an emergency.

Mr. Shingo Kouchi, senior recovery expert of International Recovery Platform, discussed the lessons learned from Japan’s experience in reconstruction, recovery and preparedness as a contribution towards a comprehensive disaster management approach in the Philippines and in Japan. Mr. Guillermo Luz, adviser of Philippine Disaster Recovery Foundation (PDRF), presented the PDRF’s plan to set up a Disaster Operations Center to coordinate the private sector’s efforts to prevent, prepare for and respond to disasters. The Center is envisaged as the main point of contact between the business community and the government, international humanitarian agencies, and civil society with respect to disaster preparedness and response. Its work will cover disaster prevention, preparedness, and recovery.

A lively exchange followed in an open forum. Representatives from the Government, the Armed Forces, the business sector, academic institutions, civil society organizations, including local and international NGOs, philanthropic organizations, the media, bilateral and multilateral aid agencies and the United Nations spoke and shared their views on disaster preparedness and response.

Three key messages stood out from the presentations and discussion: (i) disaster preparedness is vital to saving lives and property; (ii) multi-stakeholder collaboration and coordination are absolutely essential to effective disaster preparedness and response; and (iii) a holistic and integrated approach to disaster risk reduction and management is crucial to building the country’s disaster and climate-resilience.

The Resilience Conference on Earthquake scheduled for April 15 in Makati will take up these key messages further and explore practical steps to move forward in building up the country’s resilience to earthquakes.

Resilient cities

“100 Resilient Cities” was initiated and funded by the Rockefeller Foundation. Resilience has a unique and broad definition of city resilience: the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to survive, adapt, and grow, no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience. Shocks are typically considered single event disasters, such as fires, earthquakes, and floods. Stresses are factors that pressure a city on a daily or recurring basis, such as chronic food and water shortages, an overtaxed transportation system, endemic violence or high unemployment. Among the 100 cities selected (as of December 2014) are Bangkok, Danang, Singapore, Mandalay, and Phnom Penh.

On December 2014, Dr. Judith Rodin, president of the Foundation stated in her speech at the Singapore Urban Resilience Conference:

“Because of the intersecting forces of globalization, urbanization, and climate change, crisis has become the new normal. And cities are caught in the crosshairs. Globally, not a week goes by that a city somewhere in the world doesn’t see some kind of disturbance to the normal flow of things—a cyber-attack, a new strain of virus, a structural failure, a violent storm, a civil conflict, an economic blow, a natural system threatened. The list goes on.

These shocks tend to exacerbate the more slowly-developing chronic stresses many cities experience–inequality, poor air quality, traffic congestion, water scarcity and strains on infrastructure…..”

“And nowhere have cities felt these impacts more acutely than here in Asia. Over the last three decades, Asia has accounted for 38 percent of global economic losses due to natural disasters. By mid-century the region could face annual disaster losses in excess of $19 billion. These numbers are only expected to increase, as Asia is poised to be home to 21 of the world’s 37 megacities by 2025.”

Metro Manila is one of those megacities with an estimated population of 25 million. We all know that the Philippines is rated #2 in vulnerability to natural disasters according to the latest UN University report. Moreover, Manila according to Swiss Re, is second to Tokyo in vulnerability to earthquakes. Metro Manila officialdom should apply to be one of those Resilient Cities. The next selection will be announced in December 2015.