Seasonal demand, weak peso to sustain export growth in Q4

MANILA, Philippines - The country’s export performance will remain strong in the last quarter of the year on seasonal demand and a relatively weak peso, the research arm of Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. (Metrobank) said.

“Expect exports to still post gains in the fourth quarter given seasonal demand. Furthermore, the currently weak peso, which has breached the 45:$1 level, will also increase values,” Mabellene Reynaldo, research analyst at Metrobank, said in a report.

However, the rise in outbound shipments continue to be tempered by the slow global growth, she noted.

“The weak external environment however remains as a downside risk until the first half of 2015,” Reynaldo said.

But she stressed merchandise exports would continue supporting Philippine economic growth given its strong print in the third quarter.

The country continued to post a double-digit growth in its outbound shipments as these rose 15.7 percent to $5.849 billion in September. Reynaldo noted this brought the third-quarter value to $16.8 billion, up 12.9 percent from the same period last year.

“Agro-based products continue to be the fastest-growing export commodity group in the third quarter, increasing by 18.8 percent due to high demand for coconut products and mangoes,” Reynaldo said.

“Electronic exports have also started to post positive growth, rising by 8.8 percent year-on-year for the third quarter which supported the overall figure,” she added.

In the nine months to September, merchandise exports went up 9.9 percent to $46.596 billion from the same period last year.

The main destinations during the nine-month period were Japan, the United States, China, Hong Kong and Singapore.