Phl cited among Asia's 'most resilient' economies

MANILA, Philippines -  The Philippines is among the countries in Southeast Asia less likely to feel the pinch of the economic woes in the United States and the European Union, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said yesterday.

In fact, DTI said that they are not revising the 10-percent export growth target for 2011 as set in the recently approved Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2011-2013.

The DTI said they remain cautiously optimistic about prospects for the country’s exports. The PEDP, the country’s blueprint for export development, expects Philippine exports to hit $120 billion by 2016. The export growth target for each year from 2011-2013 is 10 percent.

DTI said that the Bank of America Merrill Lynch has reported that “a one-percent fall in US gross domestic product (GDP) growth reduces the GDP growth in Singapore (-1.7 percent) the most, followed by Malaysia (-0.8 percent), Thailand (-0.4 percent), Philippines (-0.3 percent) and Indonesia (-0.3 percent).”

While reduced, the report said that the projected Philippine growth rates will still make it among the fastest growing ASEAN economy. The report said it is maintaining its GDP growth projection for the Philippines at 4.7 percent for 2011 and 5.5 percent for 2012. The Philippines is expected to grow faster than Singapore (4.5 percent this year and 4.3 percent next year); Malaysia (4.3 percent, five percent); and Thailand (4.1 percent, 4.5 percent)

The challenge for DTI is how to continue keeping the figures encouraging. For instance, despite the catastrophes in Japan, Japan became the Philippines’ top export market based on recent industry data. Exports to Japan reached $932.24 million as of June 2011, higher by 41.1 percent from $660.65 million in 2010. Exports to ASEAN also increased by six percent during the six-month period. Other markets such as Australia, New Zealand, and India also indicated increase of 31 percent. China was among the country’s top export destinations for June with China’s retail sales up by 17 percent.

During the recent ASEAN Economic Ministers (AEM) Meeting in Manado Indonesia, Ministers noted the robust merchandise trade in ASEAN in 2010. Figures show merchandise trade growing by 32.9 percent, with total trade value jumping to $2.04 trillion in 2010 from $1.54 trillion in 2009.

Both export and domestic demand have fueled growth in ASEAN. Intra-regional trade and investment flows showed upward momentum and likely to support domestic growth in 2011, projected to grow between 5.7 percent and 6.4 percent.

The Philippines has trade agreement with ASEAN and through ASEAN including China, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India.