The color of red

In the Philippines, red is the color Joseph Estrada chose for his campaign, and whose political fortune has largely been anchored on his pro-masa appeal (although the former president claims that his party color of orange and his pro-poor slogan were copied by Villar). In Thailand, red is associated with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra whose supporters have been engaged in a protest that has become increasingly more violent and could escalate into a civil war.

The situation in Thailand is taking its toll on the country’s economy, with businesses closed particularly in the up-market shopping and hotel districts in downtown Bangkok, with signs hung up on doors that say “Sorry, closed due to political unrest.” Investor confidence has naturally eroded, with Japanese firms now starting to look elsewhere if the unrest continues. Some 63,000 jobs have been lost mainly due to the negative impact on the hotel and tourism industry – a banner sector in the nation touted as “The Land of Smiles.” In Bangkok, hotel occupancy rates are down to 20 percent, with losses estimated at over $300 million for the first quarter alone with the figures expected to go worse starting April when the sit-down protests started getting more violent.

Some say one country’s misery is another’s fortune, meaning Thailand’s unrest – plus the corresponding travel advisories from various governments – are driving tourists to look for other destinations. However, there are concerns that the turmoil in Bangkok could impact the ASEAN region like what happened with the 1997 financial crisis. The Indonesian Foreign Minister said “a situation in one country, if not well managed, could have an impact on the region,” a sentiment echoed by Singapore through a statement saying “this (situation) is crucial not just for Thailand, but for ASEAN as a whole.” ASEAN, whose 10-member countries include the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, is set on an ambitious goal to establish a single market and manufacturing base in five years. However, domestic problems in a member country could hinder the process.

No one would have ever thought that a progressive country like Thailand would reach the kind of situation that borders on civil war, but over the years, the deep-seated resentments harbored by the “red shirts” – the name given to the red-shirted anti-government protesters – have been simmering. It began in 2006 when the Thai military ousted then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra – looked upon by the rural poor and the urban lower class as their hero for initiating programs like funding for education, healthcare and debt relief. Thaksin’s allies returned to power via the election in 2008, only to be removed through a series of protests initiated by Bangkok’s elite and the royalists, also known as yellow shirts – in reference to the king’s color – and through court rulings perceived as biased by Thaksin supporters.

Interestingly, the red shirt outrage is fanned by the perception that they are looked down on as ignorant country bumpkins. But while it may be true that many among the red shirts are die-hard Thaksin supporters, observers say the issue has gone past simple loyalty to a charismatic leader and has evolved into something akin to a bitter class struggle.

Other than the current government of Abhisit Vejajjiva which the red shirts consider as illegitimate, the object of protests are now the military, the urban elite and the business community who are angry at the disruption and the inconvenience caused by the long-running demonstrations. To the reds, it’s not enough that the prime minister step down and dissolve parliament; many of them want a new political system.

Protesters are threatening to spread their movement, targeting shopping and entertainment districts including Central World, the second biggest shopping complex in Asia. The upper class and the royalists are pressuring Prime Minister Vejajjiva to take stronger measures against the protesters, but speculations are rife that the army is divided, which is probably why the PM could not categorically say when the protesters will be removed. While the Thai Supreme Court has stripped Thaksin of billions in assets and convicted him in absentia for conflict of interest charges, he has remained popular among the rural masses who, from all indications, care little about the corruption charges, only remembering Thaksin as the “first politician who ever cared” about their plight.

A lot of people couldn’t help but see similarities between the sentiments of the Thai rural poor and Filipinos belonging to the lower sectors of society whose feelings of neglect and self-pity are escalating. As we get closer to May 10, the multifarious problems arising from the global crunch and the negative effects of El Niño on the economy will compound the problems for the poor, exacerbated by continued population growth in this country.

After the expected election euphoria comes the real hard work. The next president of this country certainly will have to learn from the situation in Thailand where more than the issue of corruption, pervasive poverty particularly in the rural areas has driven the uprising. As things stand, a lot of Filipinos are beginning to feel resentful at the broken promises made by politicians, and the continued neglect of their plight is slowly fanning their anger. This country’s next leaders will do well to remember that an empty stomach could just drive a man to lose his head and cause him to “see red.”

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