Failure of intelligence

As early as a month ago, the ability of the Thai security forces to contain protesters was already being put into question. Some of our sources indicated there was a big possibility that Thaksin Shinawatra supporters will try to embarrass the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva – looked down on by many as a “novice” who did not have the grit to enforce the will of his four-month-old government.

It’s amazing that with so much money put into securing the heads of state and other delegates to the ASEAN Summit (said to have cost 100 million baht including 37 million baht to feed the 8,000 policemen and soldiers deployed in the venue), demonstrators were still able to breach the venue in Pattaya. At any other time, the image of women hysterically scampering for safety as stick-wielding protesters stormed the luxury hotel would have struck one as funny if not for the seriousness of the situation.

This was not the first time that the summit had been postponed, and one would have expected Thailand to learn from its previous experience when “yellow shirt” protesters paralyzed Suvarnabhumi airport in November last year, keeping 350,000 people stranded for several days. But then again, the yellow ones were Abhisit’s supporters who wanted to bring down the government of then Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law.

But more than anything, the protests are indicative of the deep divisions that continue to plague Thailand, with analysts saying Thaksin still has the support of the poor majority especially in the provinces, which keeps feeding the political unrest in the kingdom. It even looked as if the policemen – who were only armed with batons – simply allowed the protesters to storm the venue, hardly putting up any serious effort to repel the throng. In fact, a lot of the policemen and even the soldiers deployed in the venue are said to be sympathetic to the demonstrators who mostly come from the grassroots.

A few days before the summit, the Thai government sent overtures of peace to Thaksin but the former prime minister (ousted through a bloodless coup in 2006) continued to be belligerent, refusing to negotiate and even calling on his supporters to gather en masse on April 8 to demand for changes in their country, coming short of telling his supporters to stage a rebellion. By that alone, Abhisit should have had ample warning to tighten up security even more.

Abhisit had been assuring world leaders that the summit would proceed smoothly, but obviously, the 44-year-old premier failed to read the writing on the wall, underestimating the zeal of the protesters who certainly have a big axe to grind against the present government, accusing it of attaining power through illegal political manipulation. 

No doubt what happened was a serious failure of intelligence on the part of the Thai government and its security forces. As it is, Thailand was left red-faced by the rampaging “red shirts” as the ASEAN leaders had to be airlifted into safety. More than the embarrassment or the shattered image that they suffered, what should be of deep concern is the fact that Thailand played around with the safety of the heads of state. According to sources, there were no weapon scanners at the venue, and only a handful of hotel security guards were left to man the entrances as delegates prepared to evacuate.

Thank God that despite the proclivity of Filipinos to stage rallies and protests at the slightest excuse, nothing of the sort has happened so far. In our case, just very bad weather alone was enough to make the Philippine government decide to postpone the 2006 ASEAN Summit that was supposed to be held in Cebu – which is what a good host should do. To the credit of GMA and her administration, they chose to err on the side of safety and not risk the lives of the leaders and all other attendees, which could have had very embarrassing and serious consequences. (Never mind if people suspected that the real reason for the postponement was the possibility of terrorist attacks and not the possible onslaught of Typhoon Seniang.)

It’s a good thing that despite the summit cancellation, the ASEAN+3 leaders still agreed to put up a $120 billion emergency fund to stave off future financial meltdowns and prevent a repeat of the 1997 Asian contagion that brought down the economies of Asian nations. China had also pledged to put up a $10 billion infrastructure fund and offer credit to its Asian neighbors.

What could have been a great opportunity to discuss the economic problems faced by Asia and possible solutions to the global financial meltdown turned into a nightmare for the host country. I’m sure that instead of seeing the attractions of Pattaya, the delegates will only remember the chaos. Thai tourist operators have every reason to be furious at Prime Minsiter Abhisit Vejjajiva since the tourism industry stands to lose 200 billion baht, with potential job losses of 200,000. “The government knew the red shirts were intent on disrupting the summit. Why couldn’t they plan ahead of it?” fumed the president of the Thai-China Tourism Association.

Indeed, the debacle has put Thailand in a tight spot, and it would take a very long time before people could accept it again as a viable tourist destination. For committing a serious failure of security and intelligence, people will most likely look at Thailand now as a country of chaos and turmoil instead of “the land of smiles.”

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