RP economy headed for rebound by 2010 - NEDA

The Philippine economy is heading for rebound by 2010 even assuming that the global recession lingers, with election-related spending mainly feeding growth.

This rosy economic forecast was made by Director Dennis Arroyo of the National Economic and Development Authority’s National Planning and Policy Staff during a multi-sectoral and industry consultation on the macro-economic impact and employment effects of the global financial crisis.

Apart from election spending, Arroyo said the rebound of the local economy will be spurred by the benefits of infrastructure projects, the government’s farm productivity program and the expected decline of prices.

He said infrastructure projects constructed starting 2007 will bear fruit by 2010, particularly North Luzon Expressway, Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway and new Metro Rail Transits (MRTs).

Arroyo said benefits of the FIELDS project of the Department of Agriculture meant to improve agricultural productivity will also be felt by that time.

FIELDS stands for Fertilizer, Irrigation and other rural infrastructure, Education and extension work, Loans, Dryers and other post-harvest facilities, and Seeds.

“Inflation will come down by that time. By 2010, we will have 3 to 3.5 percent inflation which will help boost household consumption,” he noted.

The NEDA official also identified industries that are expected to boom after next year including offshoring and outsourcing, real estate, tourism, mining, renewable energy and retirement estates.

Arroyo said demand for overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) will also continue to be strong due to demographics of the aging population around the world like Canada, Korea, Japan, Singapore and the United States.

An international economist has noted that labor shortages generated by the aging population in developed countries will increase the economic incentives to allow inward migration.

Arroyo noted that OFWs particularly in the US work in sectors less vulnerable to recession. They are public school teachers, caregivers, doctors and nurses and finance in the banking sector.

“We have much demand from the Middle East economies,” he noted.

The NEDA earlier said about half of the OFWs are in countries that the International Monetary Fund expects to weaken only modestly like the Middle East. — Philexport News and Features