Q3 agri growth to fall below 5%, says Yap

The third quarter growth of the agriculture sector will likely fall below five percent, a shade lower than the 5.6-percent growth registered in the third quarter last year, Agriculture Secretary Arthur C. Yap said yesterday.

In an interview, Yap said lower growth projection stems from the negative effect of high fuel prices and the 13-percent drop in fertilizer sales which would impact negatively on production.

Actual third quarter growth figures, Yap said, would not be released until Nov. 15, as the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics is still collating and analyzing all of the growth figures for all the various agri subsectors.

Yap said that most likely, the full year growth this year would fall either at the low or middle end of the target of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent.

The agriculture sector posted a growth of 4.7 percent in the first half of 2008, compared to the 3.74- percent growth posted in the first half of 2007.

Economists project a slowdown in the fourth quarter as an offshoot of the global financial crisis.

UP Economics Dean Dr. Emmanuel de Dios said there is a need for the government to focus on the domestic market in the light of an expected fallout in the agriculture sector and commodities market from the current global financial crisis.

While the Philippines is not a major agricultural exporter, De Dios said, the government should work on improving production efficiency as increased production would help keep prices down and help tide the country over the expected global economic downturn.