GSIS’s $1-billion fund ploy

Last week’s announcement of the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) that it had sold most of its stake in the food conglomerate San Miguel Corp. took the market by surprise. As to be expected, imaginations started running wild.

GSIS’s declaration that it had unloaded a 6.4-percent-stake in the country’s biggest food and beverage company worth P14.25 billion, and that it had also sold other stocks in the last couple of weeks to raise a total of P25 billion was indeed worthy of triggering quite a few speculations.

GSIS, after all, is headed by Winston Garcia, whose Cebu-based influential family is a vocal and staunch supporter of President Gloria Arroyo for the longest time. The sale happened just weeks before elections, and so ever-suspicious minds easily put two and two together. It didn’t help that the buyer was, according to news reports, San Miguel’s very own retirement fund.

Making sense

Taking aside suspicions, the move of GSIS made sense when put in the context of a strategy Garcia had spoken about in his early days in office, and had reiterated recently.

The indomitable Winston wants GSIS to invest overseas, put money in assets where the fund could earn much more than what it gets from local stocks and bonds especially after interest rates had fallen to record lows, and earnings from the domestic fixed-income market had hit bottom.

The benchmark 91-day Treasury bill yield is now at an all-time low of 2.86 percent based on an auction two weeks ago. This represents to investors a negative return considering the 2.2-percent March inflation rate and the 20 percent tax on interest earnings.

Except for some very speculative stocks, a double-digit return has been unheard of lately, which may explain why a lot of unfortunate souls are falling prey to pyramid scams in recent years.

GSIS has P400 billion in assets, and it should be returning at least 11 percent to lengthen the actuarial life of its fund, according to Garcia.

The feisty Cebuano says he wants the fund – which represents the interest of more than a million government workers – to start earning more by investing it in assets in Asia, Europe and the US , much like the strategy of GSIS’s counterparts Calpers and Calsters, the two biggest funds in the US

Consolidating $1 billion

The plan is to put about $1 billion of GSIS’s portfolio in various foreign stocks and debt papers.

From the P25 billion of stocks the pension fund had unloaded including the SMC shares, almost P10 billion in profits had been booked, according to GSIS.

The other plan, which Winston had also spoken about as soon as he took over the helm of GSIS, was to set up a local equity fund worth as much as P20 billion.

The index fund as per his original plan will be composed of a basket of stocks, also included in the Philippine Stock Exchange Index. GSIS can invite foreign investors who may not have the time to monitor individual stocks daily to just buy into the fund. And from there, make some money.

The ultimate goal, whether to go overseas or set up an index fund or venture into property development, is to boost GSIS’s portfolio and extend the life of its reserves so it can improve the retirement and other benefits of millions of government workers.

Moderating the peso’s appreciation

Garcia’s plan to invest overseas will indirectly help the central bank which is already at its wits end in trying to slow the appreciation of the peso. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas had put in place new policies hoping to limit the currency’s gains since exporters have been complaining about the sustained increase.

Instead, the peso last week went up to its highest in more than six years at 47.95 to a dollar as the mighty greenback continued to weaken and while overseas Filipinos continued to send loads of money so their folks here could not only pay for tuition fees but also buy condominium units or town houses.

Should GSIS push through with investing $1 billion overseas, the demand for dollars that the pension fund would create would help moderate the strength of the peso.

This jives well with the central bank’s new policy effective April 2 which doubles to $12 million the amount that Filipino residents may invest abroad without any approval from monetary authorities.

Nixing speculation

According to GSIS, a number of reputable groups will be named to manage its proposed $1-billion overseas portfolio. This should assure government workers that their money isn’t going to be used to buy votes in the upcoming polls.

The nasty rumors that accompanied GSIS’s recent moves could have been avoided if all these transactions had not been consummated just a few weeks before the elections. At this point, anything that a known ally of the administration does is subject to suspicion. But then, as one wise guy remarked, what can one do if financial advisers tell you it’s the best time to sell?

It is now up to Garcia and other maverick managers like him in government to rise above the cloud of doubt and prove that their actions are meant to improve the lives of the people they serve.

Will Garcia deliver for GMA or for the millions of GSIS members? Abangan.

Website for major poker skills tournament

Philippine Poker Tour (PPT), the leading proponent of non-wager poker skills tournament, is inviting poker enthusiasts to regularly visit the PPT official website, www.PhilippinePokerTour.com.

The website also contains details on how to join the 3rd PPT Million-Peso Hold’Em Philippine Championship, a major event that features P1 million as minimum guaranteed prize for the champion and a maximum of 30 winners.

The site also contains the venues and dates of qualifying/satellite tournaments where winners are given FREE seat certificates to the grand finals scheduled on 7th and 8th of July 2007. Qualifying/satellite competitions are held at San Mig Alabang Town Center every Wednesday and Friday; and at Elbow Room, Metro-Walk, Pasig every Thursday, and at Airport Casino Filipino Paranaque on 20th April.

Players may also call the PPT Secretariat (c/o Cindy) at 817-9092 or 812-0153 for more details.

Should you wish to share any insights, write me at Link Edge, 4th Floor, 156 Valero Street, Salcedo Village, 1227 Makati City. Or e-mail me at [email protected] or at [email protected]. For previous columns, you may visit my website at http://bizlinks.linkedge.biz.