Farm output up 3.8% in 1st qtr

The Philippine farm sector, a big driver of the country’s gross domestic product, surpassed the government’s forecast, spurring optimism that the country would achieve its overall growth target of 3.8-4.3 percent for the first quarter.

The sector, which accounts for about a fifth of GDP, grew 3.81 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, beating the government’s growth projection of 3.5 percent and exceeding the revised 3.10 percent growth registered in the same period last year.

Agriculture Secretary Leonardo Montemayor told a news conference the farm sector’s strong first quarter showing was due to good weather and increased public and private spending on infrastructure, production and easier access to credit.

First quarter GDP data is expected to be released later this month.

In the fourth quarter of 2001, GDP expanded by an annual 3.8 percent as the robust growth in the agriculture and services sectors offset the slump in the industry sector.

"With the good growth of agriculture, the target GDP growth forecast of 3.8-4.3 percent of the government in the first quarter is within reach," said Mike Ordinanza, director of the Association of Securities Analysts of the Philippines.

Song Seng Wun, regional economist at G.K. Goh Securities in Singapore, said he expected Philippine Farm output GDP to record a growth of 3.8 percent in the first quarter.

David Cohen, an analyst at MMS/S&P in Singapore, also said the government’s first quarter growth was "well within the range of expectations."

El Nino

The El Nino weather pattern, which is expected to recur in the fourth quarter, will have little impact in the economy this year, economists said.

But Montemayor said despite the economists predictions about El Nino’s effects, his department was sticking to its "conservative" forecast of full-year farm sector growth of 2.7-3.7 percent for this year down from 4.01 percent in 2001.

The Department of Agriculture said ample output gains in unmilled rice, mango and other crops, together with an uptick in fishery production, offset the paltry or negative growth indicated by some major crops, such as coconuts and coffee, in the first quarter.

The crops subsector, which accounts for about 52 percent of total farm output, expanded by 2.83 percent during the quarter on the year, the same growth it posted in the first quarter of 2001. Livestock production rose 3.72 percent in the first three months of the year against the 2.11 percent growth last year, and the fishery subsector posted a 5.15 percent increase against 2.77 percent growth in the first quarter of 2001.

Poultry production also grew 5.52 percent in the first quarter from 5.30 percent in the same period last year.

Unmilled rice production, one of the country’s major crops, came back strongly from last year’s slump of 1.49 percent to record an 8.76 percent increase this year, it said.

"Production was estimated at 3.06 million metric tons, a feat attributed to increases in both area harvested and yield," the department said.

Coconut production dropped by 7.85 percent due to adverse effects of typhoons last year, it added.

The Philippines is the world’s largest seller of coconut oil.