Crisis is over, says head of export group

The crisis which hit hard the country’s export industry last year has bottomed out. This will help in raising overall economic growth this year to between four and 4.5 percent.

This was the assessment and forecast of Philippine Exporters Confederation (Philexport) and concurrent Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr.

"At its worst, export performance will be flat this year. If the recovery in the United States hold, it will start to bounce back by the second quarter, instead of the second half of this year. If it just grows a bit, gross domestic product (GDP) growth can easily hit 4.5 percent, " the export leader asserted.

He expects that the services sector will continue to grow above four percent while agriculture, with a more aggressive program to push farm modernization by government, will hit over three percent growth.

"If there is no major international accident, exports and manufacturing can rebound by one or two percent. This will surely push economic growth higher," he predicted.

The government has projected a more modest growth while independent economists have forecast that economic growth this year will be "carabao-paced" as always.

The export leader said that last year, the 15.6 percent decline in exports, had dragged down overall economic growth for the first time in 10 years. In terms of hard cash, the country’s earnings from goods sold abroad dived by close to $6 billion from $38 billion in 2001 to $32.15 last year.

This happened as a result of a global economic slowdown made worse by terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon building in Washington September of last year.

Grim predictions that the attacks may lead to a long global recession had not happened. Towards the end of last year, consumer spending in the United States began to recover and so with the demand for electronics products, the Philippines top export. – Abe Belena, Philexport News and Features.