Can ‘civil society’ elect Winnie, Liway? - DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Amidst the euphoria and self-righteous fighting words from the so called "civil society" of the EDSA 2 People Power Coalition comes reality check number one. The latest Pulse Asia nationwide survey of voter preferences shows that die-hard Erap supporters Miriam Santiago and Ping Lacson are within the winning circle of 13. Senators Enrile and Honasan, two other Erap supporters in the Senate, as well as Erap spokesman Dong Puno are statistically within the winning circle.

As if the nightmare isn’t that bad for those who call themselves "civil society," Noli de Castro is now number one and Korina Sanchez is also comfortably within the winning circle even if she had said she isn’t running. "Civil society" favorite, Mareng Winnie Monsod is way down the list, lower than Gina de Venecia, Butz Aquino and Boots Anson Roa. Liway Vinzons Chato is even lower, lowest, I think.

I counted only eight senatorial hopefuls in the winning circle who can be described as People Power candidates, and that list already includes Serge Osmeña who was being eased out by his cousin Lito. The "sexy twosome" of Boy Herrera and Serge Apostol (kasi "matigas ang dila" as Butz Aquino once observed) are nowhere near the winners’ circle. Sonny Alvarez who initiated the Erap impeachment, is also down in the list. The latest SWS survey pretty much confirms Pulse Asia figures.

Yet, winning by a convincing ratio of at least 10 to three is extremely necessary for the GMA administration. Otherwise, there is danger that the Erap forces will declare the results a referendum of sorts in favor of the ousted president. A strong showing of Erap candidates in May will strengthen the legal position of the man in Polk Street that he had been illegally ousted by a mob at EDSA.

The problem is the broad masses, even those in Metro Manila, still fail to see what Erap did so wrong so as to deserve being kicked out of Malacañang. Jueteng? That’s the masses’ ticket of hope for an overnight reversal of fortune. Mistresses? They are pretty free with their love relationships in the slums. Billions of pesos in bank accounts? That’s beyond their imagination.

I guess, we still have to show in very clear terms exactly how Erap betrayed the people and enriched himself in violation of his oath of office. The quick prosecution of the former President in the anti-graft court is one way to make this known. But we don’t have time between now and the May election to do that. Nothing short of an organized campaign by "civil society" using very simple language will do the trick.

But how formidable is this "civil society?" Will "civil society" invest time and devalued pesos to support such a campaign? Is this "civil society" strong enough to make a candidate that represents them, someone like Mareng Winnie or Liway Vinzons-Chato, win the May elections, defying all odds?

Friends of Winnie Monsod agonized over the weekend on whether she should run at all. GMA supposedly said she was her personal choice. But the reality is her awareness rating of 55 percent. Those in the winning circle have awareness ratings in the 90s, with the lowest (Ralph Recto) at 82. But even Recto compensates by having a high vote conversion rate.

Then comes the question of funding. Running for the Senate is not a walk in the park. I hear the minimum budget for a Senate run is P80 million. How will Mareng Winnie, who is rightfully finicky about potential donors, raise that amount? Liway will have the same problem too.

Will those loquacious "civil society" leaders dig deep into their pockets to help Mareng Winnie and Liway Chato? Moral support is fine but Winnie and Liway must pay for food and lodging for their campaign workers, printer’s bills, helicopter rentals, media time and space and the thousand and one things that must be done in a well-run national campaign. Who was it who said that this "civil society" is largely composed of Makati-type people with deep pockets but short arms and noisy as hell?

I realize that Rene Saguisag in his time, didn’t have the resources too but he had Cory magic on his side. There is no such thing as Gloria magic now, or maybe, not yet. On the contrary, there is still Erap magic which the Erap five (and now Loi too) can exploit.

I don’t know if it is even possible to raise P20 million from among the members of the Makati Business Club to help candidates of this so called "civil society." Yet, even half a million pesos from each of the 400 or so members of MBC isn’t going to impoverish them and will be more than enough for a nationwide campaign for the two ladies.

There is no doubt we need intelligent and idealistic people in the Senate if only to improve the quality of debates. For one, I can’t wait to see Mareng Winnie in action versus Miriam. But she won’t get there with just moral support from "civil society." She will need extraordinary effort to get elected.

I am afraid Winnie and Liway will suffer the fate of Haydee Yorac. She won in the urban areas but was so down in the rural areas, notably in locations where votes can be affected by magical powers. Haydee also didn’t have enough funds to carry her to the homestretch.

Maybe if that one million or so who were in EDSA 2 were to go out to the countryside and reach out to the masses and explain what Erap did so wrong and why they should vote for non-trapos this May, maybe another miracle is possible. But this I gotta see.

Feeling president

Golfers at the Ayala Alabang course are wondering what’s with FVR these days since EDSA 2. They say he now has a box of papers by his side at his golf cart. In between holes, with tobacco in mouth, he picks up one document after another, reading and marking them with his famous red pentel pen, just as he used to do when he was president of the republic.

They swear they could almost feel the presidential aura emanating from FVR. I guess he enjoys exuding it too. I suppose retirement bored him so much he is itching to get the glory back. Is that why Glory’s, I mean, Gloria’s administration looks, sounds and feels like the second coming of FVR?

Valentine advice

Here is what today’s computer savvy, Internet crazy lover should do this Valentine’s Day, according to our on-line love guru, Dr. Ernie Espiritu.

1. Be user friendly. 2. Take bytes. 3. Fondle joystick. 4. Spread sheet. 5. Fix surge protector. 6. Activate hardware. 7. Insert disc, all the way. 8. Do it until megabytes. 9. Back it up 10. Eject floppy.

Happy Valentine’s Day!

(Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected])