A distant war

It was in the middle of the night when I found out that the United States intentionally attacked Iran in coordination with Israel. It marked the most significant escalation in Middle East hostilities in years, thrusting a volatile region further into open confrontation. Deadly strikes on Iranian military targets and leadership was spot on. The confirmed number of deaths and retaliatory missile barrages opened a new chapter of uncertainty in global affairs.

For many Filipinos, the drama unfolding in the Persian Gulf may be remote but it is actually very near us. There are many Overseas Filipino Workers abroad in the Middle East. We are not a world away both geographically and geopolitically. In our increasingly-interconnected world, the reverberations of great-power conflict do not respect distance. Even as the Philippine Government reports just one casualty as of this time, the broader economic and diplomatic effects have already begun to register here at home.

Another immediate impact is economic. The strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes, has seen dramatic disruptions since the strikes began. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned vessels away, halting much of the usual traffic. This will significantly affect oil prices in the long run.

For the Philippines, an oil-importing economy, higher global energy costs translate quickly into domestic pain. Transport costs rise, as well as prices for basic goods. We also have to put into consideration pressure from global inflation. Producers are reliant on fuel and fertilizer, the latter much of which the Philippines imports from Gulf suppliers. The costs may be passed on to consumers. In a country where many households already feel the pinch of rising prices, even marginal increases in global oil benchmarks can have outsized social impact.

Diplomatically, we have adopted a cautious stance. While the Philippines maintains a long-standing security partnership with the U.S. under the Mutual Defense Treaty, it seems our priority remains to be de-escalation and the safety of our citizens overseas. It has joined other Southeast Asian governments calling for restraint and a return to negotiations.

What is crucial is to be a voice that also criticizes the strikes. We should be one with progressive groups that have condemned the offensive as a violation of international law and raised humanitarian concerns over civilian casualties. Children, mothers, and many other vulnerable individuals are the most affected.

As Filipinos, it is imperative that we should realize how this conflict affects us in many ways. It could be repetitive: rise in the price of fuel and rice, the feeling of anxiety about our loved ones abroad and our collective sense of security in a shifting global order. The challenge for our Philippine leaders and citizens alike is to navigate these currents with a steady commitment to peace, a clear defense of human dignity, and a firm eye on national interests. We continue to watch this like a television reality show, from the Strait of Hormuz to Cebu.