A hidden, bigger disaster

Since when did heavy rain or gloomy weather become a reason to suspend classes? On Thursday, February 5, I was looking at the sky and there was no rain. Weather experts said the rain was expected only in the late afternoon to evening, with a wetter day forecast the next day, Friday.

The rain did come on Friday. Yet face-to-face classes were suspended for a whole two days, Thursday and Friday. To be more accurate, schools were advised to shift to online or asynchronous modalities, which is another way of saying: ad hoc learning for two days, and let’s all pretend it works.

Back to my question: Since when did heavy rains become a reason to suspend classes across all parts of a city or town?

Rainfall is not the hazard. Flooding and landslides are. A blanket suspension is a laidback method of handling safety while disrupting the school calendar. In fact, it is the safest stance: err on the side of caution. Students’ safety is on the line. And local officials can avoid being bashed on social media for not suspending classes and “putting the lives of children in danger.”

Sounds about right, until you realize this has become an auto-response, an administrative convenience, a substitute for targeted, science-based planning. Climate change-induced weather disturbances and their hazards have been with us for over a decade, yet our measures remain stuck at the level of contingency.

I think we can do better. Do we not have hazard maps, historical data, and more accurate forecasts these days? Do we not also know where our students live, since schools collect their addresses? Yet we treat a localized hazard as if it automatically applies across the entire metropolis, city, or town, simply because it happened somewhere nearby or because it feels safer to assume the worst.

Worst case thinking can feel like the safest default, the most prudent approach. But it can also be administrative laziness, substituting broad caution for precise judgment grounded in science and data.

Thus, I welcome the announcement of Cebu City Mayor Nestor Archival this week that he will convene all barangay captains and other stakeholders next week to establish a “unified scheme” for localized class suspensions. The following statement from the mayor, as quoted by The FREEMAN, about declaring suspension of classes is particularly encouraging: “Dili na kinahanglan mupadong pa nako… Sometimes man gud ang uwan, naa ras area sa bukid, unya dinhi sa ato, wala…”

A report from the Second Congressional Commission on Education Year 2 (EDCOM 2) revealed that Filipino students lose up to a month’s worth of school days due to class disruptions caused by climate-related events.

EDCOM 2’s 2025 report states: “Philippine public schools are hemorrhaging learning time as storms and policy collide. In School Year 2023–2024 alone, Cordillera students lost 35 of 80 school days—meaning they spent almost one of every two scheduled days at home instead of in class. Cagayan Valley and Ilocos were close behind, effectively squeezing what should have been a four-month stretch of instruction into barely two months.

“Even Metro Manila, supposedly safer with its urban infrastructure, forfeited about one in every four school days to weather-related suspensions… What began as a precaution has calcified into habit: when a typhoon threatens, schools close whether or not damage occurs, and there is no clear plan to reclaim lost days.

“Why is this cause for worry? Shrinking contact hours mean weaker mastery of basic skills, widening gaps between storm-hit regions and the rest of the country, and an entire generation thinking it is normal for schools to be optional during the rainy season.” It is what one study commissioned by the Asian Development Bank Institute describes as a “hidden disaster from seemingly benign but frequent hazards.”

We must plan for this new normal through policy and infrastructure that support a clear stance: schools should make every effort to stay open. Decisions on suspending classes should be made locally, based on a data-driven risk assessment and on-the-ground conditions. That means knowing where and when roads become impassable, and when transport becomes difficult, during heavy rain.

Advisories should be tiered, with lower-level advisories leaving room for parents to decide. Children should not be marked absent or late if parents keep them home for safety. Let’s put a stop to this kind of risk management at the “whole LGU, whole day” level.