Mindanao no longer solid for Duterte

While the Marcoses' north becomes more and more solid, the Dutere's south becomes more and more divided. One on one, the Dutertes can no longer hold a candle to the consolidated political strengths of the Marcoses coalition. The 2025 poll results shall exacerbate the Duterte's vanishing hopes to recapture the Palace.

The nation's middle, which is the Visayas, is being consolidated by the Speaker. Negros has been made a separate region again, courtesy of the First Lady, who is an Ilongga, an Araneta haciendera. Cebu is being controlled by a Marcos ally, the Garcias. Iloilo is being woed and is leaning to the Palace, and the likes of Drilon are fading fast. Above all, Mindanao is going for the Marcoses again.

When President Rodrigo Roa Duterte was in Malacanang, the whole of Mindanao was solid for him. He was able to carry virtually unknown characters to the Senate, people like Bong Go who was a personal confidante for the longest time, Bato de la Rosa who was a police general but without the Duterte magic, would not even win as barangay captain, and even Francis Tolentino who lost his previous senate bids.

But today, Francis Tolentino has abandoned the Dutertes. The political butterfly from Tagaytay came back to the Marcoses because Tolentino's father was a close political ally of BBM's late dad. In fact, Francis Tolentino was a godson of the original Philippine godfather of traditional politics, Apo Lakay from Batac and Paoay. The only guy who seems to remain loyal aside from Bong Go and Bato is Robinhood who wears his Islam faith like a shining emblem.

Today, Duterte does not have influence anymore even on Manny Pacquiao who is richer than the Duterte's more than tenfold. Pacman has far too many more mansions, sports cars, helicopters, private planes and yachts than Duterte, at least as those declared. Duterte has antagonized Koko Pimentel of Cagayan de Oro because the Dutertes grabbed the PDP Laban from its original founder's family and legitimate party members. Duterte has lost support in Zamboanga. Mannix Dalipe, the Speaker's favorite, is the major player in the impeachment of Vice President Sara.

The five Davaos (del Norte, del Sur, Oriental, Occidental and de Oro) have a crack as Congressman Cagas dared to swim against the current and signed the impeachment of the vice president. That was the biggest slap on the political face of the Dutertes. They were able to appease Bebot Alvarez of del Norte who sported anxieties and anguishes when he was unceremoniously stripped of the Speakership courtesy of Inday Sara who installed her fairy godmother, GMA as Speaker of the House.

Even the Zubiris of Bukidnon are no longer warm to Duterte. The Adiongs, Alontos, Macarambons and Dimakutas of Lanao del Sur and the Badelleses, Lluch and Cabilis as well as the Dimaporos of Lanao del Norte are not with Duterte. The Chiongbian, Ramiros, Oaminal political dynasties and the Parohinogs of Misamis Occidental are not with Duterte. The Navarros, Barbers, Matugas and Ecleos of Surigao del Norte as well as the Pimentel's Tys and Falcon of Surigao del Sur are not with the Dutertes.

The only loyal men of Duterte are Isidro Ungab of Davao City, as well as some Lopezes and Garcias. Also faithful despite what Sara did to him is Bebot Alvarez of Tagum but the Floirendos and Sarmientos and del Rosario's are becoming distant and distant. In Agusan, only the Plaza family remains a Duterte follower. The Amantes have been lost. In Cotabato, there is no more loyalty from the Pendatuns, Masturas, Datumanongs and Matalams, not even the Sinsuats.

The impeachment was signed by 41 out of 60 House members from Mindanao: Mannix Dalipe of Zamboanga City, Jurdin Jesus Romualdo of Camiguin, Sittie Amina Dimaporo of Lanao Del Norte, Yasser Balindong and Zia Alonto Adiong of Lanao Del Sur They used to be Johnny Pimentel of Surigao, Joeboy Aquino of Agusan, Alfelito Bascug and Adolf Plaza of Agusan Del Sur, Jason Almote and Sancho Oaminal of Zamboanga Sibugay, Peter Miguel and Isidro Lumayag of South Cotabato allies of Duterte.

The following also signed the Sara impeachment: Jonathan Keith Flores, Laarni Roque and Jose Alba all of Bukidnon, Mohamad Paglas of Maguindanao del Sur, Celso Regencia of Iligan City, Alan Ecleo of Dinagat, Loreto Acharon of Gensan, Steve Solon of Sarangani, Dimzsarwi of Tawita, Robert Glo Uyna Labadlabad and Adrian Amatong of Zamboanga del Norte, Jeyzel Yu and Divina Yu of Zamboanga del Sur, Christian Unabia and Yevgeny Emano of Misamis Oriental, Lordan Suan of Cagayan de Oro, Joselito Sacdalan and Samanta Santos of Cotabato, Munir Arbizon and Samier Tan of Sulu signed the impeachment.

When one is out of power, all the balimbings and the trapos would jump ship and join the bandwagon of the majority party. In Cebu, the Garcias used to be with Duterte when the weather was fine and Cristina Frasco was even made Inday Sara's spekesperson. Due to Inday's former Uniteam with BBM, Cristina was appointed secretary of the Department of Tourism which was vacated by the sister of Senator Raffy Tulfo who got into trouble with a contract with a TV network allegedly resulting to financial advanteage of Ben and Erwin Tulfo. Now both Cristina and the Tulfos have abandoned Duterte. That is how the cookie crumbles.

With the impeachment of the vice president, and with the ICC cases hanging over the heads of the Dutertes, I doubt very seriously if there will be another Duterte in Malacanang. Inday Sara met the forces of karma for what he did to Bebot Alavrez. Now even GMA can no longer help her as the former president from Pampanga is likewise a lameduck. Her former allies also abandoned her. The unkindest cut of all was that she was replaced by her own hiherto trusted ally, Aurelio Dong Gonzales.

Presidents Rodrigo Duterte and GMA shall go down in Philippine history as remote and minor annotations of the changing tides of political fortunes. Inday sara will be more remembered for what she did to the sheriff and what she did to Bebut Alvarez. She will also be remembered for her reckless outbursts for which she is being charged before the impeachment court.

Her father will also be remembered for the promises he never fulfilled, like abolishing contractualization, solving the drug problem and eliminating graft and corruption. His only remarkable achievements were making senators of Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa and Robinhood Padilla. And if ever the people persist in their fanaticism, also making Willy Revillame and Philip Salvador members of the Senate impeachment court to try and acquit his beloved daughter. 

Mindanao has many conscientious citizens. Many of them are not blind Duterte followers. And, for every action, there is always an equal and oppiosite reaction. What goes around comes around. As Erap used to quip: "Weather weather lang yan."