Resilience

Three seemingly incredible achievements amid domestic noise on the Dutertes and budget finagling and abroad, rising geopolitical tensions as Donald Trump prepares a swashbuckling White House comeback: 1) the Philippines is among Asia’s fastest growing economies in 2024 and 2025; 2) Sofronio Vasquez III is the first Filipino and the first Asian to win the international singing competition “The Voice USA” Season 26 and 3) Mary Jane Veloso is finally back to her native country after 14 years of imprisonment.

The three are wholly unrelated positive developments but they have a common thread: Filipino resilience.

According to the Asian Development Bank’s December 2024 Asian Development Outlook, the Philippine economy will grow by 6 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025, up from the 5.5 percent GDP growth rate in 2023.

Among the six major ASEAN countries, only Vietnam will have a higher growth rate – 6.2 percent in 2024 and 6.6 percent in 2025.

In output growth, the Philippines will clobber Indonesia, whose GDP is projected to grow 5 percent in 2025 (also 5 percent in 2024); Malaysia 4.6 percent (5 percent in 2024); Thailand 2.7 percent (2.6 percent I 2024) and Singapore 2.6 percent (from 3.5 percent in 2024).

In January to September 2024, the Philippine economy as measured by its value of output of goods and services in the first three quarters or GDP (Gross Domestic Product) expanded by 5.8 percent, thanks to a buoyant services sector, construction and manufacturing.

To get the annual 6 percent average for 2024, the economy must grow by at least 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The last three months of the year usually are a strong quarter because of strong Christmas consumer spending and last-minute buildup in capital expenditures to enable companies to report a good year.

“Holiday spending, more stable commodity prices and a robust remittance inflow and labor market give us confidence that our 6.0 to 7.0 percent growth target is still achievable,” explains Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan.

In the third quarter, household consumption and investments helped drive the economy.

“Moderating inflation and monetary policy easing should continue to support growth,” says ADB. “On the supply side, buoyant services sector, construction, and manufacturing are contributing to overall growth.”

Manila-based ADB notes that services will continue to be the dominant growth driver, with retail trade, tourism and information technology-business process outsourcing as major contributors.

“The manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) remained above the 50 threshold at 53.8 in November, the highest in over two years, with strong upticks in production and employment. Public infrastructure projects continue to lift growth, along with brisk private construction,” notes the bank.

Coming from six strong typhoons in 23 days, the “Philippine economy has shown remarkable resilience this year,” enthuses Balisacan.

Explains the economic planning chief: “We experienced significant weather-related disturbances or disruptions throughout the year: a prolonged dry season due to El Niño and the consecutive strong typhoons amid La Niña. Increasingly volatile climate patterns have affected our growth and adversely impacted agriculture, the movement of goods and overall economic activity in affected areas.”

Balisacan assures “our growth rate still positions us as one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. It is a testament to our people’s hard work and dedication and the sound policies implemented by our government despite challenging conditions.”

Two things fuel consumption which accounts for 84 percent of the economy: strong OFW remittances, expected to hit $37 billion this year, and government spending, with the DPWH budget pegged at a whopping P1.1 trillion in 2025.

When times are bad in the Philippines, the more than 12 million Filipino expats abroad send more money to their relatives here.

In the first ten months of 2024, personal remittances reached $31.5 billion, up 3 percent from the $30.57 billion earned in January-October 2023. The $31.5 billion means monthly average remittances of $3.15 billion which, if annualized or multiplied by 12, yields a whole year remittance of $37.8 billion, 5x what the Philippines gets in FDIs in a year.

The government seems to have licked inflation, down to 3.2 percent in the January-November 2024 (2.5 in November alone), from 6 percent in 2023, thanks, Balisacan says, to the “government’s vigilant measures to stabilize prices amid external pressures.”

Ratings agencies Fitch and F&I have taken notice and upgraded the Philippines to positive last November and A- last August, respectively. Deadpanned President Marcos Jr.: “We are quite stable. Although there is a lot of noise.”

Meanwhile, while in the Philippines, Sofronio Vasquez, 32, a dentist, was eliminated from “Tawag ng Tanghalan,” seventh placer in 2017, and reportedly failed the audition for the Philippine edition of “The Voice.” He went to Utica, New York in 2022. On Dec. 11, 2024, the Filipino phenom wowed judges Snoop Dogg, Reba McEntire, Gwen Stefani and Michael Bublé with his spirited rendition of “Unstoppable” and “A Million Dreams” to beat four other contestants, to win a coveted trophy, $100,000 cash and a Universal Music Group record deal.

Vasquez’s triumph “reminds us how dreams can be achieved with persistence, hard work and continuous learning,” gushed Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Ejercito Estrada, who filed a Senate resolution to commend Sofronio.

Mary Jane Veloso’s case, Jinggoy points out, “highlights the vulnerabilities faced by many Filipinos abroad, particularly those who fall victim to deception and human trafficking.”

“We must uplift and support our fellow Filipinos, especially in adversity,” he urges. BBM will probably pardon Veloso, after she spends a few days in our local jail – for checkup.

If only our politicians stopped stealing up to 40 percent of the national budget (a record P6.32 trillion in 2025), then the Sofronios, Mary Janes and every Juan and Juana of this beloved archipelago would be unstoppable in fulfilling a million dreams right in their home country.

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