Fallout of the Marcos-Duterte war

Quite a lot and enough has been said and written on the ongoing battle between the Marcos and Duterte families, and the conflict isn’t going to end soon. The personas and characters on both sides are interesting/amusing, so are the attacks and allegations. While majority opinion favors the Marcoses due to the more damaging issues against the Dutertes, and the incumbency of BBM as president, a decisive victory will likely happen after the 2025 midterm elections.

In the frontlines of this political battlefield are their immediate family members and their closest allies whose political, social, and economic interests are at stake. The losing side will see the decimation of their political power and influence, together with diminished economic opportunities and social status. The eventual outcome of this conflict will damage both sides but more so the losing side in the 2025 and 2028 elections.

Beyond the major participants in this conflict who will be most affected, there are those in the periphery of this war. These are the socio-political and economic allies of both sides who benefitted from their relationships. On the Duterte side, these are those outside the Go, Bato, and Quiboloy circle, but are considered Duterte supporters/defenders. Their political options are/will be limited including seeking for new alliances. On the Marcos side, these are allies outside the inner circle, but dependent on the BBM party to advance their political ambitions. While the senatorial candidacies of Bato and Go will be most affected, the candidacies of Villar, Honasan, Revilla, Pacquiao, Tolentino, Tulfo, Cayetano, Sotto, Lapid, Lacson, Imee Marcos, and all those who acquiesce to the Duterte intimidation and even voted to impeach and imprison De Lima, will suffer from the fallout of this Marcos-Duterte war.

Their unprincipled/cowardly stance in the Duterte years will cost them the votes of the middle class, the Robredo supporters and the real opposition. While some of them have already shifted alliances and touching base with the civil society and the Robredo supporters, the voters have memories and the internet doesn’t forget. Any senatorial candidate that can get 50% of the Robredo votes in the 2022 elections is already a sure winner.

Even the candidates for the local positions will be affected by the fallout of the Marcos-Duterte war. They may be less impacted by the unraveling issues of both Duterte and Marcos, but many will not want to be identified with either side, but rely on their own local political party and organization/resources. In the Visayas and Mindanao areas, a number of Duterte-backed candidates in 2022 are very quiet, but neither are they proclaiming support for the Marcoses.

An important fallout in this Marcos-Duterte war is the exposure of the frailty/weakness of our social and political institutions. The lack of independence of the Senate and Congress got worse in the time of Duterte and continuing under BBM. The assault on the lower courts up to the Supreme Court, the Commission on Audit, the Commission on Elections, and other independent institutions which were blatant during the Duterte administration are also continuing in subtler ways. These were demonstrated in the revelations of the congressional investigations of the POGOs, the drug war, and the budget hearings which are tied to the Marcos-Duterte war. These are dangerous trends and directions, as the independence of these institutions are major foundations of our democratic system of government.

The other fallout of this Marcos-Duterte war is the confirmation of the shortcomings of our educational system to produce citizens and electorates who are capable of thinking. Many of our elementary graduates cannot read and majority of our high school graduates cannot understand what they read. So, 40% of the voters keep on electing unqualified/incompetent public officials.

The outcome and fallout of the Marcos-Duterte war maybe a good cleansing political exercise, especially if the realization and lessons make us reverse the situation. If it does not, then like the fallout of a nuclear explosion, it will mean a slow death for our nation.