Lessons for Bangladesh, Venezuela

On top of the current bloody wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and Myanmar which have democratic political implications, in the last two weeks a people power revolt has toppled the government of Bangladesh, and there is still an ongoing demonstration against Nicolas Maduro’s government in Venezuela. Bangladesh President Hashina Wazed fled the country to India, and most top government officials resigned, leaving the country without a government. The military appointed Nobel Prize awardee Muhammad Yunus as caretaker and government adviser until a new set of government officials are appointed or elected. Meanwhile the military are talking with the student revolutionaries of forming an interim government to tackle the enormous economic problems of the country and planning for an election.

In Venezuela, the massive protests after the fraudulent election of Maduro for another term failed to oust Maduro, who cracked down with violence, arrests, and detention to disperse the demonstrations. The opposition leader/winner had to go into hiding and is planning to set up a government in exile. The US and some Latin American countries have not acknowledged Maduro’s election but he is hanging on. Brazilian President Lula da Silva criticized Maduro’s authoritarian government which has been in power since 2013. All media including social media are restricted and the Defense minister is siding with Maduro.

Regarding these two tales of people power revolutions, there are lesson to be learned from the Philippine EDSA People Power experience, and there are lessons to be learned by the Philippines on the outcome of these two recent democratic uprisings in these countries.

Bad governance was/is the main ingredient of failure of governments and their replacement. Autocratic tendencies of leaders, elected or otherwise who perpetuate themselves in power, then proceed to human rights abuses, massive corruption, repression/persecution and rigged elections to have a semblance of democracy. The consequences of these are economic recession, unemployment, and rising poverty levels due to lack of domestic and foreign investments. Government revenues are siphoned to private pockets and irrational programs and projects. Domestic and foreign investments evaporate and do not come back.

Venezuela, even with oil revenues, incurred budget deficits annually with foreign currency shortages. As of this year more than 10 million Venezuelans have left their country. On the other hand, Bangladesh, a struggling developing country after their secession from Pakistan was worse off economically with the misguided vengeful policies of Wazed. My take is that if Venezuela did not have the oil export revenues, Maduro would have fallen ahead of Wazed.

The obvious lessons for Bangladesh and Venezuela from the Philippines is that for a successful people power they must gather/amass a broader coalition of forces which includes the students and part of the military. Maduro’s coddling/spoiling of the military bought him time, with the economic deterioration abated by the oil revenues, and the departure of many Venezuelans to other countries. The Filipinos at that time of EDSA and the Bangladeshis, now did/do not have that option, which made up for more warm bodies for the demonstrations. The world is awaiting the eventual resolution of the Venezuelan problem with democratic implications.

The lesson from these countries for the Philippines is in completing the revolution and making it successful for the benefit of the people. After 40 years, the Philippines still has an incomplete and much-to-be-desired political, economic, and social revolution. The return of political and economic oligarchs hampered a more democratic wealth distribution and brought back graft and corruption. The rise of populist politicians and the retarded educational development disrupted more progressive political changes. These led to a return of corruption, rigged elections, and human rights abuses to some degree. The EDSA People Power Revolution is still a work in progress after 38 years.

On top of the current bloody wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and Myanmar which have democratic political implications, in the last two weeks a people power revolt has toppled the government of Bangladesh, and there is still an ongoing demonstration against Nicolas Maduro’s government in Venezuela. Bangladesh President Hashina Wazed fled the country to India, and most top government officials resigned, leaving the country without a government. The military appointed Nobel Prize awardee Muhammad Yunus as caretaker and government adviser until a new set of government officials are appointed or elected. Meanwhile the military are talking with the student revolutionaries of forming an interim government to tackle the enormous economic problems of the country and planning for an election.

In Venezuela, the massive protests after the fraudulent election of Maduro for another term failed to oust Maduro, who cracked down with violence, arrests, and detention to disperse the demonstrations. The opposition leader/winner had to go into hiding and is planning to set up a government in exile. The US and some Latin American countries have not acknowledged Maduro’s election but he is hanging on. Brazilian President Lula da Silva criticized Maduro’s authoritarian government which has been in power since 2013. All media including social media are restricted and the Defense minister is siding with Maduro.

Regarding these two tales of people power revolutions, there are lesson to be learned from the Philippine EDSA People Power experience, and there are lessons to be learned by the Philippines on the outcome of these two recent democratic uprisings in these countries.

Bad governance was/is the main ingredient of failure of governments and their replacement. Autocratic tendencies of leaders, elected or otherwise who perpetuate themselves in power, then proceed to human rights abuses, massive corruption, repression/persecution and rigged elections to have a semblance of democracy. The consequences of these are economic recession, unemployment, and rising poverty levels due to lack of domestic and foreign investments. Government revenues are siphoned to private pockets and irrational programs and projects. Domestic and foreign investments evaporate and do not come back.

Venezuela, even with oil revenues, incurred budget deficits annually with foreign currency shortages. As of this year more than 10 million Venezuelans have left their country. On the other hand, Bangladesh, a struggling developing country after their secession from Pakistan was worse off economically with the misguided vengeful policies of Wazed. My take is that if Venezuela did not have the oil export revenues, Maduro would have fallen ahead of Wazed.

The obvious lessons for Bangladesh and Venezuela from the Philippines is that for a successful people power they must gather/amass a broader coalition of forces which includes the students and part of the military. Maduro’s coddling/spoiling of the military bought him time, with the economic deterioration abated by the oil revenues, and the departure of many Venezuelans to other countries. The Filipinos at that time of EDSA and the Bangladeshis, now did/do not have that option, which made up for more warm bodies for the demonstrations. The world is awaiting the eventual resolution of the Venezuelan problem with democratic implications.

The lesson from these countries for the Philippines is in completing the revolution and making it successful for the benefit of the people. After 40 years, the Philippines still has an incomplete and much-to-be-desired political, economic, and social revolution. The return of political and economic oligarchs hampered a more democratic wealth distribution and brought back graft and corruption. The rise of populist politicians and the retarded educational development disrupted more progressive political changes. These led to a return of corruption, rigged elections, and human rights abuses to some degree. The EDSA People Power Revolution is still a work in progress after 38 years.