Surveys, for now!

Survey, according to a statistician-friend of mine, is a method of collecting data and information from a group of people to understand their opinions, behaviors or characteristics. Sir Francis Galton, a 19th century statistician, is acknowledged as one of the pioneers in developing survey methods. Because of the work of Galton and other statisticians, a person will have a tool and a methodology to understand what are the ideas of other people which are otherwise hidden in their minds. If according to Supreme Court Chief Justice Manuel Moran, motives of a man or a group of people that drive them to do anything are hidden and therefore not visible to the human eye, then a survey of their idiosyncrasies and opinions can help unravel what is unseen.

A report that I read few days ago mentioned that the Social Weather Station (SWS) conducted a survey on the performance of President Ferdinand R Marcos Jr., in the period from June 23 to July 1 although it released the results only last week, August 1. The survey results showed that fifty-five per centum (55%) of adult Filipinos were satisfied with Marcos. Apparently, this survey indicated that the president enjoyed a five percentage points higher mark compared to the poll done in March. Fifteen per centum (15%) of the people surveyed were undecided while twenty-eight per centum (28%) were dissatisfied. It was good for Marcos Jr., to get a net satisfaction rating of plus twenty-seven per centum (+27%). Accordingly, the survey showed that President Marcos Jr., gathered seven (7) points higher than the poll conducted in March.

Out of my ordinary mind’s curiosity, I am doing a simple mathematical addition of all those who probably were covered by the SWS poll. 55% of those surveyed were satisfied by the way Marcos runs the government. That figure is touted as a significant increase of the president’s approval rating. 15% were undecided and 28% were dissatisfied. All told 98%. Maybe the remaining 2% were those for the opposition. Without such assumption, may I ask what happened to the 2%? Of course, I am sure the pollsters can explain. Just the same, to me the absent 2% has to be explained.

For purposes of remembering the March survey that I have mentioned above, I am quoting a news feature of the Philippine Star relative to that poll. The PhilStar, quoting the OCTA Research Group that projected a supposed political preference of our countrymen, reported that “a majority of Filipinos identify themselves either as pro-Marcos administration or pro-Duterte family, with most of them saying they support the current President more than his predecessor. xx Results of the March 11 to 14 survey released yesterday showed that about 31 percent of the respondents said they support President Marcos and his administration, while 20 percent said they support the Duterte family and their political allies. xx Only four percent of the respondents said they support the opposition, while 29 percent said they neither support the Marcos administration, the Duterte family nor the opposition. Another 15 percent said they do not know or refused to answer the question.”

Again an addition of those figures revealed that: 31% pro-Marcos, 20% for Duterte, 4% for the opposition, (of which there was no mention in the last survey) 29% neither pro-Marcos, nor pro-Duterte and certainly not pro-opposition, and 15% refused to answer. The total is 99%.

From such surveys, we can discern that the president is gaining support. If we add the obvious jumping of political leaders to the camp of the president in preparation for their own 2025 electoral battles, the next surveys should project an entirely different chart.