Three-in-one

Duterte here, a Duterte there, a Duterte everywhere.

Well, not everywhere. Rodrigo Duterte and his sons – Davao Congressman Paolo and Mayor Sebastian, a.k.a. Polong and Baste – just want to be together in the Senate.

Opponents say the Duterte clan is taking greed for political power and dynasty building to a higher level (or greater depths).

But if you look at the current composition of the Senate, there are already three pairs of close relatives in the chamber. Why begrudge the Dutertes if they want to have one more than the rest? Don’t Pinoys love three-in-one?

Yes, we do, in our instant coffee. But in a 24-member Senate? That’s already one-eighth of the entire membership.

When it comes to disruptive tactics, you have to hand it to the Dutertes. Vice President Sara Duterte roiled the already choppy political waters by announcing that her father the former president and brothers would be gunning for the Senate in 2025.

Since “Tatay Digong” Duterte tends to change his mind depending on his mood upon waking up, the announcement about the family’s political plans could be meant merely to stir up their opponents.

Still, the family announcement could keep them politically relevant, to stanch the continuing membership hemorrhage in the Duterte-led Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Laban. These days, even the loyalty of Digong’s erstwhile super alalay, Sen. Bong Go, is being questioned by Mayor Baste, the presumptive 2028 presidential bet of the former first family.

Baste? What happened to the original presumptive presidential candidate, VP Sara? She later clarified that this matter has not yet been finalized by the family.

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If Baste is truly the “presidentiable,” the clan must be counting on the Duterte brand, rather than any particular member of the family, to win back power (and the billions in confidential public funds). It doesn’t matter who seeks the presidency; any Duterte will do.

A common speculation is that the VP’s announcement about Mayor Baste is meant merely to deflect the intense heat directed at her by former allies in the UniTeam.

Rodrigo Duterte is an astute political player; he’s surely aware that presidential wannabes who announce their ambition too early become magnets for demolition jobs and have a dismal record of victory.

Having announced Baste’s presidential aspiration, however, the mayor can serve as the VP’s lightning rod until the final moments for filing candidacies in 2028.

President Marcos and his cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez, had the same reaction to “Duter3” for the Senate: it’s a free country. To the VP’s resignation as education secretary and co-vice chair of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC), the Speaker’s reaction was, best of luck to you.

Beyond those benign comments, the VP can expect zero confidential funds for the rest of her term, and annual appropriations that could be smaller than what her father allotted to his vice president, Leni Robredo. The House is set to summon VP Sara to defend her budget proposal for 2025.

The Davao City government can also expect budget constraints, and minute scrutiny of fund utilization.

Populism requires deep pockets, so such constraints can pose a serious problem to the Dutertes’ political plans. Where will they get funding, when the PDP-Laban is rapidly shrinking back to its pre-2016 status as the “Volkswagen party” (the entire membership can fit in a Beetle)?

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There’s speculation that the needed funds will be provided by the world’s second largest economy. Such funding contributions are illegal under Philippine laws, and we can expect the government to closely monitor any financial traffic between Beijing and Davao City.

So far, the Dutertes have not bothered to squelch speculation that China will back a Beijing-friendly candidate in the Philippine presidential race in 2028.

BBM gets high marks in foreign policy. China has below-zero trust rating among Filipinos, and getting any form of support from Beijing can be considered treasonous in the light of barbaric Chinese attacks on Philippine vessels in the West Philippine Sea. Is Duterte prepared to risk alienating one of his support bases – the military – in exchange for campaign and patronage funds?

BBM insisted yesterday that the UniTeam remained alive. Others see VP Sara’s resignation from the education department and the NTF-ELCAC, followed by her announcement of her family’s plan to regain power, as an open declaration of war between the two clans.

It could prompt Marcos 2.0 to enter into a broad alliance even with members of the “pink” and “yellow” opposition that tried to block his ascent to power.

Former senator Antonio Trillanes IV, a member of that opposition camp, but who is known to be on friendly terms with BBM, is moving to cobble together such an alliance, whose aim is to put a decisive end to the Dutertes’ political prospects. Or, as Trillanes put it on One News’ “Storycon” last Wednesday, to “obliterate” the Duterte forces.

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Trillanes pointed out that the pink / yellow opposition has more common ground than differences with the Marcos administration on key issues.

The Duterte camp has in fact derided this opposition for being co-opted by the administration, especially in the effort to send Digong to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

In the time of Marcos 2.0, the Duterte camp is presenting itself as the true opposition.

The ICC is expected to issue an arrest warrant for Digong soon, with warrants to follow reportedly for Sen. Ronald dela Rosa and his successor as national police chief, Oscar Albayalde.

Any ICC arrest warrant can be enforced in the Philippines only with a green light from the government. This is another thing that Marcos 2.0 can do following the announcement of the Dutertes’ political plans.

Some observers see the announcement as an act of desperation. Some think there’s method in the seeming madness, and the Dutertes will emerge as the victors. Others can’t wait for the ICC arrest warrants to come out soon enough.

The reactions of despair to “Duter3” for the Senate says a lot about the enduring strength of the Duterte brand: people think all three might actually win.