Interesting opinions on Taiwan

“I think the electorate on Taiwan --if given the opportunity-- may well vote itself into China.” -retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor.

A similar opinion was uttered by Lu Shaye, Chinese Ambassador in France in a controversial interview: “I am sure that after the reunification with China the public opinion in Taiwan will change.”

However according to a recent poll at Taipei University only 2.4 % of Taiwanese rate themselves as Chinese, while 64 % say they are Taiwanese. The freedom-loving Taiwanese youth will not change their mind.

The Chinese are masters in manipulating opinions by soft power, fake news, subversion and intimidation. In 2015 Xi Jinping founded the Base 311, a huge military thinktank with the task to influence Taiwanese public opinion towards welcoming the peaceful reunification with communist China. Xi does not exclude force. But the Taiwanese are adamant to defend their territory, democracy and freedom. They have mighty allies. More and more nations --among them eventually also the Philippines-- are opposing Chinese expansionism.

Interesting is Colonel Macgregor’s opinion on an armed conflict: “The Chinese have no interest in attacking Taiwan. There will be no war. This is a manufactured boogeyman’s straight out of Washington.”

In one point Macgregor is right: “The Chinese on the Island of Taiwan don’t want war, neither do the people of the mainland.” But he fails to notice that the people of the mainland have no influence on the commander-in-chief’s decision. There is no general election. Xi has absolute power to order the long-proclaimed invasion. He doesn’t bother to sacrifice thousands of PLA soldiers who are the only sons of Chinese families.

Lu Shaye says correctly that there are two opposing political parties in Taiwan: The Democratic Progressive Party and the Nationalist Party Kuomintang. Interestingly Colonel Macgregor holds: “You have always had two parties there: One is pro-Japanese, the other is pro-Beijing. And the pro-Beijing party is stroAng enough that that (the re-integration of the renegate province of Taiwan into the motherland) could happen.”

Pro-Japanese? There is no pro-Japan party in the Republic of China. It is a ridiculous phantasm. Macgregor defends his statement: “The Taiwanese thrived under Japanese rule. The Japanese have industrialized and modernized the island.”

The colonel is not proficient in history. Japanese colonialism had ended four years before Chiang Kai-shek immigrated with 2.6 million Chinese. It was the indigenous Taiwanese who were exploited by the Japanese. They had no political parties. And they did not want to be industrialized.

“Japanese presence was not everywhere inherently evil”. In the Philippines it was evil. Everywhere in the Japanese Empire’s Co-Prosperity Sphere it was evil too.

Macgregor trivializes Chinese aggression: “We keep on saying the Chinese are bullying their neighbors. Well there had been some disputes with the Vietnamese...” He denies to his audience the occupation and exploitation of several smaller peoples’ Exclusive Economic Zones. Artificial island building, water and laser cannoning and ship ramming are insignificant to him.

The colonel holds: “From the Chinese vantage point war is very bad for business. They do not try to conquer Asia. They try to build a commercial system that allows them to trade with everybody on the Eurasian Continent.”

No mentioning of the weaponizing the ’String of Pearls’ up to Djibuti and arming Asian and African dictator friends against their own peoples. My God, how starry-eyed is that man! But I do not believe his China-friendliness. His motive is to instigate the Americans against the Biden administration. As a staunch America-only Trumpist Macgregor is against interference of American power outside the United States. He wants that local conflicts are resolved by local powers the ‘natural way’. Without the deterrence of America’s mighty military, the PLA would immediately attack Taiwan and the even easier prey the Philippines. For fear of being victimized as well the Indo-Pacific powers would resist Chinese expansion. Battles would inevitably take place on Philippine soil.

President Donald Trump proposed Macgregor as ambassador to Germany, but the Senate blocked the nomination. Then Trump appointed him to the board of West Point, his alma mater, but the appointment was terminated by President Joe Biden.

Macgregor regularly contributes to FOX News and has appeared on Russian state-funded TV channel RT. His railing against American arms deliveries to Ukraine and Taiwan and against freedom of navigation and overflight passages in international seas are welcome treats for anti-western propaganda. However I did not find a hint that the Chinese have tapped him for their propaganda.

In the democracies the colonel can publish his books and videos. But in China any non-conformable thinking or acting entails prison, poisoning, disappearance, or organ harvesting.

Macgregor led a tank group to victory in the Gulf War as a colonel. Although he won the battle, his superiors criticized his unconventional maneuvering that risked defeat. In 1997 he applied three times for promotion as a brigade commander, but the army top brass refused to promote him. So he left the army in 2004.

Erich Wannemacher

Lapu-Lapu City